100 times higher than simulation! Scientists warn:the probability of a major earthquake in the US increases to 2.3%
Author:Wen/Yu child of
The United States is one of the world’s major seismic zone countries, and the recent series of micro-earthquakes, but also triggered a hot American scientists.
According to the”Daily Mail” pointed out, scientists have issued a warning that California, the United States, in the next 12 months, there may be a major earthquake, which is It is not a good thing to say, let’s take a look at the specific situation.
United States California faults may have a “cascading effect”
According to public data, more than 3,000 earthquakes occurred in the Ridgecrest area of California in the US last week. As a result, the possibility of changes in the San Andreas fault has increased.
Because the earthquake has exacerbated the changes in the Garlock fault, the observation data shows that the fault zone extended 160 miles (about 257 kilometers) along the Mojave Desert after the earthquake, and took Rich The location of the Crest earthquake is connected to the large-scale San Andreas fault.
So the problem that scientists are worried about may be happening at the beginning Scientists have estimated that the probability of a”Garlock” fault zone occurring in the next 12 months of magnitude 7.5 or less large earthquake is 0.023%, but after 2019, the risk has increased to 2.3%.
One of the greatest threats is the”San Andreas Fault”. The probability of a major earthquake in this fault zone is expected to increase from a 0.35%probability to 1.15%by 2020. This direct multiplier growth. Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the US Geological Survey, said the Chikrest earthquake was closer to rupture than the Garlock mountain fault.
If the fault zone is broken, then the distance from Shengan In the area within about 25 miles (about 40 kilometers) of Delias, stronger earthquakes may occur. Researchers warn that the San Andreas fault will one day have an earthquake of magnitude 8 or above, which is the “cascading effect” of earthquakes in the fault zone.
2019 Earthquake of 2014 triggered”alertness”
In 2019, in the Ridgecrest area of the United States, strong earthquakes of magnitude 6.4 and magnitude 7.1 occurred continuously, which is difficult for scientists to think of. The earthquake accelerated the connection between major fault zones and increased the fracture probability of the San Andreas Mojave section to 25%-67%.
So scientists have publicly stated that the probability of the San Andreas earthquake will increase in the next 12 months, which is 100 times higher than the previous simulation, and also pointed out that if San Andreas An earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in Yas will kill more than 1,800 people, injured about 5,000 people, and displaced as many as 1 million people.
This is the warning given by scientists through earthquakes, of course Whether it really happened is temporarily unclear. According to the”Daily Mail”, this is a warning. It is an inference by American researchers through the increased likelihood of a San Andreas rupture.
Here we need to know that one problem is that earthquakes are in science It is impossible to make accurate predictions, so the conclusions given by American scientists are also”inferential” and are instructions given in combination with existing data, so it does not mean that it really happened, just that possibility.
Earthquake Is it really unpredictable in science?
At least we can affirm this problem now, that is, earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted in science, including American scientists said that an earthquake of magnitude 8 or above may occur in this super-large fault zone in the United States. The definition given by”possible” raises the note of the possibility of strong earthquakes in the area.
If there is such a strong earthquake in the future, it can be regarded as an early warning statement, but it does not mean that it really happened. This is a kind of earthquake description situation that is often studied in the United States. That’s it.
In nature, it is true that earthquakes occur mainly because Plate movement or fault zone slippage is also one of the main factors leading to earthquakes. Because these are”active” problems, human technology cannot accurately determine how they will move next, which is also not accurately predicted by earthquakes. One of the main reasons.
Of course, even now, there are people talking about Earthquake clouds, earthquake fish, biological anomalies, etc. may be related to earthquakes, but here can clearly tell you that scientists or experts have studied much It has been explained twice that no evidence has been found, and these are also natural phenomena of our”misinformation”, so everyone is subject to science.
Earthquakes are unpredictable in science, what can we do ? That is the establishment of an earthquake early warning system. Earthquake early warning can provide us with an early warning time quickly after an earthquake occurs, so that earthquake early warning can perfectly provide tens of seconds or even longer for us to defend against the impact of earthquakes, so Earthquake early warning plays a very important role. Of course, the length of earthquake early warning also has a relationship with the center of the source. The farther the warning time is, the longer the warning time is. The shorter the time is, the shorter the time is. The general situation of the earthquake.