2020-07-02

Brokerage leader really want to merge? The bullish flag bearer raises the tide again, and the capital flows into the north. Four bullish signals emerge

By ddzyx

As soon as it entered the second half of the year, A shares broke through the 3,000-point mark. In the past two days, brokerage real estate has carried the offensive banner one after another, and the market’s sentiment is quickly ignited!

Closed today, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.13%, approaching the 3100 point mark, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded the trillion mark. Among them, the big financial sector exerted force, and brokerage stocks set a daily limit, and the bullish sentiment in the market became stronger.

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It is noted that in the After successfully standing at the 3000 point mark yesterday, the market today showed four major”bull market” signals.

Signal 1:Brokerage stocks have set a daily limit, with up to 12 stocks in the sector. Funds flowed insanely, and the single-day net inflow of securities brokerage trust reached 9.935 billion yuan, close to 10 billion yuan, making it the most gold-absorbing sector in the market.

Signal 2:The balance of the two financings reached a new high, and leveraged funds ran into the market. Since June, the balance of the two financings has increased by nearly 100 billion yuan, and the off-site allocation has also recently become active.

Signal 3:Turnover of the two cities broke the trillion mark.

Signal 4:Today, northbound funds entered the market with a net purchase of 17.115 billion yuan, a new high since June 19.

It is worth noting that the turnover of the two cities broke through trillions, and the stock price limit of securities companies was almost a signal for the start of each round of market, and both signals appeared at the same time today. Moreover, today the market has heard the news of the merger of the two leading brokers. A senior executive of a related brokerage responded that if this matter is true, it must be a high-level secret, which has not been heard.

In addition, some private equity believes that a bull market may be in progress. At present, the monetary policy is relatively loose, and the market liquidity is sufficient, which is conducive to the rise of the overall stock market. At the same time, from the perspective of the stock market cycle, it may now be at the point of time that is also the starting point of a new bull market. However, many organizations believe that it will not be a comprehensive bull market and that the structural market will continue.

The brokerage stocks have set a rising and falling tide, and the market has reported the merger of the two leading brokerages

Following the great success of pharmaceutical consumption and technology in the first half of the year, the second half of the year At the beginning, brokerages and real estate carried the offensive banner, and the Shanghai Index finally broke through the 3000 point mark yesterday.

Today, brokerage stocks have ushered in a major outbreak, and the sector has set a daily limit. As of the close, the brokerage trust sector rose 7.41%. Among them, Zhongtai Securities, China Merchants Securities, Everbright Securities, Shanxi Securities, Zheshang Securities , Pacific, CITIC Construction Investment, Nanjing Securities, Guojin Securities, Huaan Securities, Harbin Investment, Tianfeng Securities and other 12 securities stocks During the daily limit, Guohai and Zhongyuan Securities rose by more than 8%.

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If the last three From the perspective of a trading day, the growth rate of the brokerage trust sector has reached 12.24%, of which Zheshang Securities has been on a two-day daily limit, and China Everbright Securities has been on a three-day basis Two daily limits.

It is worth noting that today the market has heard the news of the merger of two leading brokers. According to foreign media reports, people familiar with the matter said that China is accelerating the process of possible merger of the country’s two largest investment banks. This move will create a $82 billion industry giant and may initiate a consolidation among more than 130 brokers in the country. tide.

According to foreign media reports, people familiar with the matter disclosed that, according to the latest proposal, CITIC Group, the parent company of China’s largest securities firm, CITIC Securities, will act as the main acquirer to purchase shares in China’s second largest securities firm, CITIC Construction Investment. According to people familiar with the matter, CITIC Group will purchase shares from the central shareholder of CITIC Construction Investment, Central Huijin, thus becoming the largest shareholder of CITIC Construction Investment, paving the way for the integration of resources and operations.

However, Yang Minghui, general manager of CITIC Securities, once again stated at the shareholders’ meeting held on June 23 that he had issued a clarification announcement and the company had not heard of it (related to CITIC Construction Investment Securities) merger news. In response to today’s market rumors, a senior executive of a related brokerage responded that if this is true, it must be a high-level secret, which has not yet been heard.

Transactions between the two cities broke through trillions, and funds flowed into big financials

Except for brokerage stocks, today the entire big financial sector is in an offensive situation. Under the force of finance, today’s Shanghai index closed up 2.13%, hitting a new high in five and a half months. The index was close to the 3100 point mark, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded the trillion mark.

Among them, the insurance sector surged 6.68%today, China Life Insurance once reached a daily limit, closing 9.38%, China Life rose 6.79%, Xinhua Insurance rose 5.90%, Ping An China rose 3.40%.

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banks rose 3.22%, led the index up. Among them, the Qingcang Commercial Bank’s daily limit, Xi’an Bank rose 7.74%, Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, Bank of Suzhou, Zhangjiagang Bank and other city commercial banks rose more than 4%.

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Further , The diversified financial sector also rose 4.51%, including Jiuding Investment, South China Futures, Minsheng Holdings, Ruida Futures, Yuexiu Gold Stocks and other stocks rose more than 5%.

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Since promising market bullish Today, funds have entered the major financial sector, especially the brokerage trust sector.

The data shows that the net inflow of securities brokerage trust funds reached 9.935 billion yuan today, close to 10 billion yuan, becoming the most gold-absorbing sector in the market; the banking sector received a net inflow of 1.789 billion yuan, ranking second ; Net inflow of insurance sector funds was 1.442 billion yuan, ranking third.

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Founder Securities Research Institute It is pointed out that the logic of the current round of major financial forces has three main points:

First, the continuous recovery of domestic and foreign economic recovery, the domestic PMI continues to be above the gloom line, the chain has improved significantly, and the demand is also In accelerated recovery. The worst time for the overseas economy has passed. The US small non-farm payrolls data released yesterday hit the largest increase in history, and Citi’s US economic surprise index continued to climb to its highest point.

Second, finance is in the lowest valuation position in the past 10 years. The valuation of the big financial sector is only 7.9 times, and the bank’s PB is only 0.7 times. From the situation before the four major financial rises in the past 10 years, financial The valuation quantiles have absolute or relative advantages.

The third is the recent accumulation of catalysts in the financial field, from commercial banks issuing brokerage licenses, the discussion of mixed operation resumed, and to allowing local government special debts to reasonably support small and medium-sized banks to supplement capital and become bigger and stronger In the current changing external environment, the financial industry is particularly critical in the context of financial support for the real economy.

The balance of the two financings has increased by nearly 100 billion yuan in a single month, and leveraged funds are running into the market.

Whenever the A-share market turns warmer, the financing customers of the two cities They are the most keen. Oriental Fortune data shows that since the end of June, the balance of the two financings has continued to hit a record high, that is, financiers have begun to increase leverage and enter the market.

On July 1, the balance of Liangrong reached 11,636.3 billion yuan, an increase of 12,509 million yuan from the previous trading day, and continued to hit a record high, with a financing balance of 11,422 billion yuan. Among them, the balance of the two financial institutions in Shanghai and Shanghai was 617.788 billion yuan, and the balance of two markets in Shenzhen and Shenzhen was 558.489 billion yuan. On June 1, the balance of the two financings was 1,089 billion yuan, that is, the balance of the two financings increased by 87.3 billion yuan in the past month, approaching 100 billion. Obviously, the financier recently increased positions on the hot line.

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from the point of view the last ten days, plus financing off lever The industries that buy the most are pharmaceutical manufacturing, electronic components, and broker trusts, with net purchases of 7.5 billion yuan, 7.033 billion yuan, and 6.921 billion yuan, respectively; the stocks with the most leveraged purchases are, Ping An of China, China Everbright Securities and China Merchants Securities have net purchases of 1.363 billion yuan, 1.041 billion yuan and 577 million yuan, respectively.

It is worth noting that, in addition to the formal brokerage channels and leverage, according to reporters, off-site funding has also recently become active, and various types of funding advertisements have begun to be distributed, claiming that the leverage can be enlarged to 1- 10 times, promotion of interest-free allocation, etc.

Northbound capital inflows exceed 17 billion, and institutions are optimistic about the structure of the market

Now the index’s massive assault is also driven by the running of northbound funds.

As of the close of July 2, the net purchase of northbound funds was 17.115 billion yuan, a new high since June 19. Among them, the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 11.161 billion yuan, and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 5.955 billion yuan. It is worth noting that net purchases of more than 17 billion yuan have also entered the top five positions since the opening of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks.

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wherein funds north 6 Monthly net inflow of 52.679 billion yuan, northbound funds have bought a total of 148.929 billion yuan in the past three months, northbound funds actively entered the market, the role of promoting the A-share market can not be ignored.

Chen Jiande, general manager of Private Enjoy Fund, said that a bull market may be under way.

First, from the perspective of monetary policy, under the influence of the new crown epidemic this year, the economy is weak, the currency is loose, and the market liquidity is ample, which is conducive to the rise of the overall stock market;

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Second, from the perspective of the stock market cycle, it may now be at the starting point of a new bull market. The SSE Index has experienced several rounds of bear markets since 1990, and the time has not exceeded 5 years. The current round of bear markets has been adjusted from 5178 points in June 2015 to the current 5 years. The cycle is long enough;

Third, the end of the current bear market is very similar to January 2013 to June 2014. The GEM index rose from 585 points in early January 2013 to 1400 points in June 2014, an increase of about 140%. During this period, the 50 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index have not risen. Coincidentally, the GEM index has risen from about 1,200 points at the beginning of 2019 to more than 2,400 points now, and the increase has also doubled. At the same time, blue chips such as the Shanghai 50 have not risen. After July 2014, blue chip stocks started a wave of bull markets. History may repeat itself, and this time it may also be a wave of blue chip bull markets.

“In terms of investment income, with the loosening of monetary policy this year, the market financing cost has continued to decline, and now the coupon of many 3A bonds is only about 3%. And correspondingly, many bank real estate sectors Of companies, whose return on net assets is about 15%, and the annual dividend rate is about 4%, the dividend rate alone is already higher than the coupon of these 3A bonds. Therefore, the price-performance ratio of high-quality blue chip stocks is very high, which is conducive to attracting A lot of capital flows in.” Chen Jiande said.

Chongyang Investment said that the stock market is a reflection of hope. With the expected reversal of the two variables of “one inside and one outside” (domestic economy and Sino-US relations), we judge the Chinese stock market for some time to come. The opportunity will be greater than the risk, and there is even room for more than expected, especially the related targets based on the improvement of economic fundamentals will usher in further opportunities. Especially for Hong Kong stocks, on the one hand, the valuation is still at a historically low level. On the other hand, with the implementation of relevant laws, it means that the timing of the listing is gradually approaching. Since this year, the external uncertainties that suppress Hong Kong stocks will also dissipate. The good time is getting closer.

It is worth noting that according to reporters, many institutions have stated that even if the market goes bullish next, it will not be a comprehensive bull market, and the structural market will continue.

The Founder Securities Research Institute pointed out that the core of the interpretation of the market after the financial dance lies in the economic cycle, and the initial judgment will continue the structural market. Judging from the interpretation of the market after the past four major financial rises, a more obvious structural market has appeared in 2013 and 2019, which is essentially a sign of stabilization in the short-term economic cycle. Judging from the current situation, the economy is likely to continue to recover. Therefore, the structural market since the second half of 2019 will continue.

This article originates from brokerage China