Construction Talk | There are 4 months left and Trump’s time is running out
economic Watch Net Wang Yiwei/text On November 3, the United States will host the presidential election, and there are still four months left.
There is not much time left for Trump.
Trump is like a tireless soldier who is still stuck in a position and still holding his position. He is holding a machine gun (personal social account) and shooting around. China is one of his main goals, and if he moves, he turns the muzzle and hits a bullet. On July 1, Trump angered China again. He said in a tweet,”When I saw the new crown pneumonia epidemic spread its ugly face all over the world, including the serious harm it caused to the United States, I became more and more angry at China.” )”
Trump toss China in such a way that Trump makes China feel very uncomfortable. Because of this, the negative news about Trump issued by the Chinese media is always read a lot. As of now, Trump’s dilemma, and the number of polls that have been hard to see, I believe that Chinese readers already know enough. Some American media predicted that Trump had lost, and even the Republican Party would replace him, which also won the approval of many Chinese readers.
However, it is too early to predict Trump’s loss.
Trump’s situation is indeed passive, and time is getting tighter, but this does not mean that he will definitely lose this election.
There are two issues that need to be viewed dialectically.
First of all, it is not just Trump’s fault that failed to deal with the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.
The United States is a decentralized society. The power of the President of the United States is defined in scope, and each state in the United States has its own self-governance power. It is precisely because of such a power structure that we saw that when the epidemic began, the US states and the federal government appeared to fight each other and grab each other for epidemic prevention materials. This is almost unimaginable in China. A small Dali in China intercepted a few boxes of masks, and the officials’ black gauze hats were lost. But in the United States, various states can really fight with Trump’s central government.
In addition, regarding the way to deal with the epidemic, Trump has his own ideas and suggestions, each state in the United States has its own strategies and practices, some states have strict anti-epidemic measures, some states are loose, and the practices of each state The political influence of existing parties can also be changed at any time based on the specific conditions of the state.
Another thing is that Americans are naturally free, and the government’s instructions and suggestions can be heard or not. The spread of the epidemic and the American lifestyle are also important factors.
From this perspective, it is not objective to add all responsibility for Trump’s failure to respond to the epidemic. In this regard, American voters have a lot in mind.
Secondly, the trend of black people being abused by police is unknown, which may cause drag on the Democratic Party.
The”Black Life Expensive” movement (also translated”Black Lives Matter”,”Black Lives Matter”, referred to as BLM for short) in the United States and the world is moving towards another complex extreme. This includes the liquidation of history and the excessive accommodation of black groups. The liquidation of history, on the surface, is just pushing some historical statues. In fact, it is a cultural revolution, and it is very complicated to develop. The excessive accommodation of black groups, including attempts to formulate policies to compensate black groups in some places, has buried the incentives for ethnic conflicts. The Democratic Party is a strong supporter and participant of the”Black Life Expectancy” movement. Now, the Democratic Party is in danger of being threatened by this movement.
In the ethnic composition of American society, white people are still the majority. If the”black life is expensive” movement goes too far and stimulates the white people and other groups to rebound, this is not a good thing for the Democratic Party. Good for Republicans and Trump.
As for Trump’s disadvantage in this campaign, the author believes that there are three:
First, he offended too many traditional media and incurred strong public opinion pressure.
Although it is the age of self-media, the traditional media still has a strong ability to guide public opinion. Trump offended too much traditional media. He used his own power to fight with almost all the media in the United States through his personal social account, and he was asymmetrical after all. With a lot of bullshit and ruins, Trump may suffer a big loss if he does not improve his relationship with the media.
Second, whether American voters accept Trump’s governance model.
After a period of running-in, American voters have now recognized the true face of Trump. He is governing the country by managing enterprises. This way of doing things is completely different from the traditional political elite. The traditional elite model, the US president should be personable, wise, and have a big pattern. Trump is different. In the eyes of traditional political elites, Trump’s performance is naive, ignorant and absurd.
This kind of governance style has been recognized by American voters. Do they recognize it?
Third, the progress and effects of restarting the economy.
This is the most important. Allowing voters to have jobs to do, wages to earn, and future prospects is the key to winning elections. Trump clearly saw this, so he urged all regions to restart their economies. The problem is that there is a contradiction between the restart of the economy and the protection of the epidemic. If the operation is not good, it will lose both sides. If the epidemic is not well controlled, the economy will not improve.
This is Trump’s biggest problem. If there is no obvious improvement in the US economy before November 3, his re-election campaign is indeed in crisis.
From this perspective, there is really not much time left for Trump.