2020-07-03

Ma Guangyuan:In those cities I like, how did house prices perform in the first half of the year?

By ddzyx

Every crisis is actually the best opportunity to re-recognize the scarce resources of good cities in China.

For example, when the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, the Chinese people discovered the value of China’s first-class cities such as North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and house prices in first-, second-, and third-tier cities have clearly distanced themselves. This epidemic has made the value of China’s good cities more prominent. Such a trend will only intensify in the future. Good houses in good cities will always be hard currency and the most scarce resources, not only in China but globally.

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of course, every crisis, but also to everyone universal education and wealth of knowledge. Regarding human wealth, the most important rule should be that 10%of people control 90%of global wealth. This shows that only a few talents have the ability to seize wealth opportunities beyond ordinary people. The reason why most people cannot seize the opportunity to get rich is simple. Most people only think about wealth according to normal thinking, and normal thinking cannot catch real wealth opportunities and realize excess returns.

Taking real estate as an example, most people’s thinking is that house prices are too high and not many people can afford them, especially when major crises occur, house prices will plummet. This is normal thinking, and this normal thinking is actually very abnormal.

For example, under the impact of this year’s epidemic, I have emphasized two trends in real estate this year on various occasions:

First, the epidemic will not change China The trend of housing prices, regardless of whether there is an epidemic, the era of general real estate growth in China is over, the era of real estate investment without IQ is over, and future real estate investment is limited to”three 20%”:20%of cities, 20%of real estate, 20%Of developers;

Second, house prices in first-tier cities and hot cities will rebound this year.

I also particularly emphasized that, based on my research on the law of housing prices for so many years, in the case of the central bank releasing water, good houses in good cities rarely fall. For my judgment that housing prices in first-tier cities will rebound, some people not only refute, but also angry:in the face of the impact of the epidemic, economic decline, and income decline, how can housing prices rebound? This is the thinking of ordinary people! What is the real logic? In fact, the decline in income does not mean that housing prices will fall. To put it bluntly, ordinary people, even when the economy is good, can’t afford good houses in first-tier and hot cities. Of course, don’t even think about it when the economy is poor.

This does not mean that there is no demand. Good houses in first-tier and hot-spot cities are for high-net-worth individuals. Relatively speaking, high-net-worth individuals are least affected by the crisis, and in the event of a crisis, high-net-worth individuals will choose to avoid asset shrinkage. Good houses in good cities Not only will it not fall, but house prices will rise due to increased demand. In particular, we have seen that since March, China’s M2 has returned to double-digit growth, and the M2 growth rate in April and May reached 11.1%, considering that this is a negative 6.8%economic growth rate in the first quarter Under such circumstances, the growth rate of such currencies is indeed very high.

What is the truth? Shenzhen is the first class for everyone. In fact, Shenzhen has already taught you several classes.

The last time was in March 2015, Shenzhen house prices began to skyrocket, and finally triggered a wave of magnificent surges across the country. To make a poor judgment, in fact, I reminded everyone of Shenzhen’s housing prices since the end of last year. Shenzhen’s housing prices have actually risen quietly since April last year. I keep telling you that Shenzhen is the city of China’s real estate benchmark, Shenzhen 2020 The year will lead to a rebound in housing prices in first-tier and hot cities.

The specific performance of Shenzhen’s housing prices will not be repeated, and the increase once again exceeds the imagination of many people. Last year I went to Shenzhen many times and called on high-net-worth individuals in Shenzhen to buy a good house. Many people in Shenzhen who have paid attention to my account should have heard my speech on the spot. If you listen and act, you are in this round The winner.

Of course, unlike the popular price hikes of chickens and dogs in the past, this year, there are mainly two types of houses that lead to the rise in housing prices in Shenzhen:One is high-end residential, which is a luxury house, and it is very popular; the other is the school district in Shenzhen . These two categories are my definition of”good house”. The more crisis, the better the value of a good house. Shenzhen has told you this reason many times, but if the crisis comes according to ordinary people’s thinking, everyone’s income It fell, and the house could not be afforded, and the house fell sharply. The result was a face-slap again and again.

Sometimes I even think that things like finance and commerce are really hard to cultivate, because even though many people have experienced many lessons, the only lesson they have learned is that they have not remembered the lesson.

, Nanjing and other cities also performed well. By June, from all aspects of the data, the real estate market has become the first real recovery in all industries in China. Real estate development investment, sales and land markets have maintained a surpassing popularity in other industries.

Even in Wuhan, this city I strongly optimistic about will win a strong performance after the epidemic, won the peak of the land market in June. According to media reports, on June 30, major houses The enterprise detonated the first half of Wuhan’s war of ending the auction. Wuhan successfully sold 9 land in a single day, with a total transaction price of 24.382 billion yuan.

The statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center show that as of June 29 this year, 50 cities sold 2.18 trillion yuan, up 11.6%year-on-year, setting a new record. Among them, Hangzhou sold land of 163.9 billion yuan, Shanghai sold land of 131.3 billion yuan, Beijing sold land of 11.43 billion yuan, and Guangzhou sold land of 101.5 billion yuan. For the first time, there have been 4 cities with land sales of 100 billion yuan in the land market.

Of course, if you carefully analyze the transaction structure of these hot cities, it is still good houses and school districts that lead the market. For example, in May, Beijing’s second-hand luxury home sales volume reached a new high since 2019. According to data released by Real Estate Marketer, the transaction volume of luxury homes with an average price of more than 70,000/㎡ in Beijing increased by 278%in May; the transaction area increased by 179.%; the transaction value increased by 183%month-on-month. The rebound data from the epidemic in June fell, but this is temporary.

After three years of adjustments in Beijing’s housing prices, they have basically been adjusted in place. In addition, there are almost no new developments in Beijing’s city center. Good houses are becoming scarce in Beijing, and no one wants them. In Beijing, good houses are still scarce. With the adjustment of housing prices in Beijing in the past three years, the prices of luxury houses have been rising steadily, and the liquidity is particularly good. I will not repeat the performance of other cities. Hangzhou’s number-sharing is not just about price inversion, it is still optimistic about the future.

For so many years, we have been trying to tell everyone the truth about the economy and wealth, but unfortunately many people are always wishful thinking. Especially with regard to housing prices. In fact, the reason why most people are destined to be difficult to seize the opportunities of wealth is that you are indeed fooled by many economists. What many economists tell you is not true, but what they imagine.

For example, they told you that the reason why Britain is rich is because they implement laissez-faire policies. In fact, the reason why Britain is rich is because Britain does not listen to Adam Smith is laissez-faire, but instead implements high-intensity state intervention and protection to become rich, as does the United States! But after they became rich, they began to promote the benefits of free markets and demanded that other countries open their markets.

The same is true for personal wealth. Many economists always tell you that house prices are too high, and when the crisis comes, house prices will fall. In fact, this problem is really not difficult to judge. You can see that many economists are really not wealthy and have a limited life, but they keep telling others whether to buy a house and how to invest. This is so funny. The famous economist Mrs. Robinson said,”Why should I study economics, just because I can’t be an economist?” In fact, many economists do not want to be fooled, they are also trying to predict the market, but they know nothing about the market.

For ordinary people, it is important to put aside prejudices, listen to words that you do not want to listen, and try to think in the opposite direction. Maybe you will slowly discover the law and true meaning of wealth. Remember, good houses in good cities in any country are scarce in the long run, and scarcity is one of the few useful concepts in economics. In a scarce situation, the rise may be late, but not absent.