2020-07-15

Shareholders are ignorant! 200 billion giant losses, Gree net profit cut 10 times the big bull stocks emergency voice

By yqqlm yqqlm

The final moment of the mid-term report performance forecast, a group of huge performance losses and a sudden drop, after all, they are still on the stage!

Cinema leader Wanda Movies, losing 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year; 200 billion market value education Giant Chonggong Education, a loss of 200 million to 300 million yuan in the first half of the year; air-conditioning leader Gree Electric Appliances achieved lower performance than last year.

Wanda Movie, Chinese public education, Gree Electric The latest number of shareholders is less than 104,400, 24,600, 496,300, the total number of these three major shareholders is more than 600,000.

Taihe Group, *ST Jinzhou, *ST Jingui, Dongxu Optoelectronics, *ST Zhongtai In the first half of the year, there were also substantial losses, with losses of over 1 billion yuan.

Incore Medical, which produces medical gloves and the stock price has risen explosively, has surged over 25 times in the first half of the year, and the stock price has increased by a factor of 10, and investor sentiment has soared. The company said that there is uncertainty in the price of future gloves, and investors should pay attention to risks.

The performance of many giants is dismal

Wanda MoviesThe performance forecast released on the evening of July 14th said that in the first half of the year, the net profit is expected to be about -1.6 billion yuan to -1.5 billion yuan, and there will be a loss in performance. The profit for the same period last year was 524 million yuan. The company said the main reason was the new crown epidemic. As the leader of the cinema, Wanda Movie has a new market value of 43.25 billion yuan.

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Wanda Movies said that the main reason for the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to show a large loss during the forecast period is as follows:In the first half of 2020, since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, The entire film industry and company operations have been severely affected. The company’s more than 600 domestic cinemas have been closed since January 23, 2020. Overseas cinemas have also been suspended from the end of March 2020. At the same time,”Chinatown Detective 3″ and other films that the company’s main investment controlled have not been released as scheduled In addition, the filming progress of some film and television dramas has also been delayed, and the company’s operating income has dropped significantly compared with the same period last year. The company still needs to pay more rigid costs such as employee salaries, theater rentals, and financial expenses, resulting in a large loss in the company’s operating performance during the forecast period.

However, Wanda also said that although the new crown epidemic has a greater adverse impact on the company’s short-term operating performance, it will not affect the company’s continued profitability. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in my country and the adjustment of prevention and control measures, the audience’s demand for watching movies and the company’s production and operation will gradually recover, and the prosperity of the industry will gradually increase. The company will strive to improve its business performance and promote its steady development.

Zhonggong Education also released a performance forecast on the evening of July 14th, saying that it expects a net profit loss of 200 million to 300 million yuan in the first half of the year, compared with a profit of 493 million yuan in the same period last year; the company also said that its performance was affected by the epidemic influences. The recent share price of Zhonggong Education has continued to hit new highs, and it still rose 0.38%against the trend on July 14, with a market value of 194.6 billion yuan.

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CPG Education stated that during the reporting period, it was affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic As a result, the multi-provincial civil service joint examination was postponed from the end of April to August 22 in the first half of the year. Compared with previous years, the relevant income was synchronously delayed by 4 months, which enabled the company to confirm that the operating income fell during the reporting period compared with the same period last year.

During the reporting period, the country’s employment stabilization policy was intensively introduced, and the expansion of enrollment in public service areas such as civil servants, institutions, teachers, and medical services was confirmed and strengthened. Judging from the announcements that have been issued so far, the overall number of recruits has increased by about 30%over the same period last year. The company’s online service advantages and online and offline integration advantages were further strengthened during the epidemic. With the improvement of recruitment and the full resumption of offline courses, the company’s comprehensive advantages will be further expanded.

Home appliance white horse faucetGree Electric announcement, it is expected that the net profit in the first half of the year will be RMB 6.3-7.2 billion In the same period last year, the profit was 13.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 48%-54%over the same period of the previous year. During the epidemic of new coronavirus pneumonia, sales and installation activities in the terminal market of the air-conditioning industry were limited, and terminal consumer demand weakened.

Guoxuan Hi-Tech, a leader in the lithium battery industry, announced that its net profit for the first half of the year is 30.5 million to 39.5 million yuan, down 88.76%-91.32%year-on-year. During the reporting period, the production and operation of downstream customers resumed slowly, and the company’s production orders and product shipments declined to a certain extent. At the same time, new production capacity of domestic power battery manufacturers was gradually released, the competition became increasingly fierce, and the company’s net profit decreased significantly compared with the same period last year.

A large number of stocks have suffered performance losses or plummeted

Taihe Group announced that it expects a net loss of 1.46 billion-18.6 billion yuan in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year The profit is 1.56 billion yuan. In the first half of 2020, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the company’s real estate development project settlement schedule, there were no centralized delivery of real estate projects, only sporadic project delivery carry-over income, resulting in a substantial decline in revenue from the same period of the previous year and a corresponding decrease in operating profit .

*ST Jinzhou announced that it expects a net profit loss of 1.5 billion yuan to 1.05 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and a loss of 1.315 billion yuan in the same period last year. Fenghui Lease had difficulties in recovering early interest, insufficient funds to start new business, and shrinking operating income; the seizure of bank accounts in the jewelry sector, the payment could not be recovered, the funds were seriously insufficient, and normal production and operation activities could not be carried out, and the operating income was severely shrinking.

Dongxu Optoelectronics announced that it expected a net loss of 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year Profit of 844 million yuan. In the company’s main business, the high-end equipment and construction and installation engineering business requires the company to advance a large amount of funds in advance. In the first half of this year, affected by the company’s continuous shortage of liquidity, the high-end equipment and construction and installation engineering business orders have been significantly reduced. Superimposing the impact of the new crown epidemic in the first half of the year, the high-end equipment and construction and installation engineering business stock projects are progressing slowly. Compared with the same period of last year, the revenue of high-end equipment business decreased by about 2.8 billion yuan, and the revenue of construction and installation engineering decreased by about 1 billion yuan, which directly led to a substantial decrease in the company’s profits.

*ST Zotye announced that the company expects a net loss of 750 million-10.5 billion yuan in the first half of this year and a loss of 290 million yuan in the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company’s subordinate bases were basically in a state of suspension or semi-stop production. The company’s automobile production and sales fell sharply, and sales revenue fell sharply, causing the company’s performance loss in the first half of 2020 to be large.

Jinyi Film and Television announced that it expected a net profit loss of 310-390 million yuan in the first half of the year and a profit of 55.190 million yuan in the same period last year. Since January 24, nearly 200 direct-operated theaters under the company and more than 200 franchised theaters under the Guangzhou Jinyi Pearl River Cinema Co., Ltd. have all been suspended. As of the end of the reporting period, they have not resumed operations, which directly affected the company’s operating income.

East E-Jiao announced that it expects a net profit loss of 67.54 million yuan to 98.41 million yuan in the first half of the year, and a profit of 193 million yuan in the same period last year. Affected by the domestic new coronary pneumonia epidemic, during the reporting period, especially in the first quarter, some domestic dealers resumed their work and production was postponed, and the general customer traffic in pharmacies and other sales venues was severely depressed, which caused the company’s offline business to be greatly affected.

Good performance may also fall limit:because the previous increase was too large, 10 times the bull stocks suggest risk

It’s worth noting that it’s not just performance The company is worth noting that some stocks with excellent performance, due to the excessive increase in stock prices, should also guard against large price fluctuations after the performance forecast.

Inc Medical, whose stock price is soaring, announced the abnormal fluctuation of stock trading on the evening of July 14. Since the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the global demand for disposable gloves has surged. With the future epidemic changes, the situation of tight supply and demand may be It will be alleviated, and at the same time, with the expansion of the industry, it is not ruled out that the short-term overcapacity in the future will cause the price of the product to fall; if the price of raw materials rises with uncontrollable factors, it will affect the company’s profitability.

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From the bottom of August 2019, Infineon Medical’s share price has risen more than 10 times.

If Huada Gene, which had a substantial increase in performance, was released on July 14, the stock price fell to the same day. Before disclosing the performance limit, BGI’s stock price rose too much. Zhende Medical, which also fell on July 14, also disclosed a substantial increase in performance.

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The reduction is coming:big bull stocks Shareholder reductions occurred

The stock price continued to soar, and shareholders could not bear it, and they all tried to reduce their holdings!

Mindray Medical announced on the evening of July 14 that EverUnion (HK) Limited (hereinafter referred to as”Ever Union”), a shareholder of approximately 64.36 million shares of the company (approximately 5.29%of the company’s total share capital) It is planned to reduce the holding of the company’s shares by no more than 6.4 million shares (approximately 0.53%of the company’s total share capital) within 6 months after 15 trading days from the date of this announcement, in a manner permitted by laws and regulations such as centralized bidding or block trading ).

Since Mindray Medical went public in October 2018, its share price has gone all the way. The latest share price has risen more than 5 times the issue price. The company’s latest total market value is about 400 billion yuan.

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WuXi PharmaTech, Zhaoyi Innovation, Huiding Technology, etc. Pharmaceutical and technology bull stocks have also recently issued shareholder reduction announcements.

The market oscillated markedly yesterday, and the foreign capital was selling at a high volume. How did the market go? The latest research and judgment of the brokerage firm

On July 14, a big dive occurred in the A-share market, and the decline was once large. Although it bottomed out at the end of the session, it fell generally as of the close, especially in the north. The single-day net outflow of funds exceeded 17 billion yuan, setting a historical record, which cast a shadow over the trend of A shares today and the market outlook. What do the brokers think about the shock yesterday (July 14)? What does it mean for foreign investors to sell off suddenly? The latest broker strategy gives investors some inspiration.

China Everbright Securities:normal adjustment at mid-to-high valuation

For the market correction on July 14, it is considered to be the expected normal adjustment. As previously emphasized repeatedly in the third quarter strategy report and weekly report, before the recovery of corporate profits has been officially confirmed, a number of factors may lead to adjustment pressures in the market, the recent market has risen significantly, and short-term funds also exist to cash in on returns Possibly, in particular, with currency as the anchor of valuation, the current A stock market value/M2 is located in the historical quintile of 79%since 2003, and the valuation of A shares has clearly entered the overvalued range. In this context, the market has adjusted It is normal.

In the short term, yesterday’s rapid market rise after the decline shows that the current market sentiment is still relatively optimistic. The short-term market still has room to rise under the support of optimism, but investors still need to focus on policies and Regulatory trends. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the time passes to the end of the third quarter, the market adjustment pressure will gradually increase, but even if the market is adjusted in the future, investors will not need to worry too much. After the recovery of corporate profits is confirmed in the fourth quarter, the market still continues to rise. At this time, investors can consider adjusting the position structure instead of drastically reducing positions.

In terms of configuration, with the gradual improvement of the domestic economic situation, the market is returning to the first stage of”strong data and loose policy”.”Policy loose” favors the style of science and technology, and”strong data” favors finance. , Periodic, optional consumption and other partial attributes, investors can follow the”data strong” and”policy loose” logic for asset allocation:(1)”data strong” means weak cycle recovery, investors can focus on upstream The petroleum and petrochemical and non-ferrous metals, midstream chemical industry, downstream real estate and military sectors; (2)”Policy loose” means that small and medium-sized creative styles are dominant, and the performance of the technology sector is still optimistic for a long time. (3) The consumer sector can focus on optional consumer investment opportunities such as home appliances, while the profit recovery of banks and insurance in the second half of the year is relatively certain.

China Merchants Securities Strategy:Pay attention to the index of turnover rate, and the probability of a round-up rise is relatively large

Overall, the current market reflects the accelerated rotation Characteristics, the market volume has not changed significantly with market fluctuations, and the overall transaction has remained quite active. However, as we have reviewed in a few days, as the margin of the market’s rapid short-term fund entry diminishes, the subsequent market may fluctuate. However, increased volatility is one of the characteristics of the bull market, and there is no peak signal yet.

Following up, the current phase of the corresponding stock market operation is similar to the phase of 2006Q3/2009Q2/2012Q4/2016Q4. From the previous liquidity drive to the fundamental drive, the subsequent market evolution will follow two paths One is that after 2006 and after 2016, both strengthened the economic recovery financial cycle and the blue-chip market rose; after Q2 in 2009 and 2012Q4, growth was dominant, and technology consumer medicine was dominant.

From the perspective of turnover rate, we need to pay attention to the record high index but the turnover rate does not reach the record high phenomenon, which may be the signal that will appear at the top; at the same time need Pay attention to the financing balance and the market sentiment behind the public fund issuance. If the financing balance exceeds 2.8 trillion, the public fund will issue 400 billion yuan in a single month, which may be a sign of overheated sentiment; relative to the 2015 valuation, the financial cycle, optional consumption, TMT still has room for improvement. Judging from the situation of this round, the combination of technological recovery and economic cycle recovery is superimposed on the global easing, the financial cycle and technology have logic, and consumer medicine also has performance and long-term stories; therefore, there is a high probability of round-up and general rise.

Guosheng Securities Strategy:Why do foreign capital enter and exit? Trading funds dominate

After the net outflow of capital from the north yesterday hit a huge amount, Guosheng Securities released the latest special strategy report that believes that the capital of the north goes into large outflows in the short term, and the inflow style rotates rapidly.

Since July, capital inflows from northbound have been large, and the scale of inflows has been close to 30 billion in the first two weeks; and on July 14, the collective outflow from the northbound channel has reached 17.38 billion yuan. The capital of the north went in and out. In addition, according to our previous tracking and observation, since the beginning of the year, the allocation of funds to the north has been relatively stable. Consumption and technology have always been the foreign investment preference sector, and the largest scale of foreign investment allocation in the second quarter. However, since June, the allocation behavior of northbound funds has changed significantly, and the main inflow has experienced a rapid rotation of”consumption-technology-cycle”. From the perspective of the structure of the land inflows’ net inflow style, June’s large consumption inflow slowed down significantly, while technological growth and cyclical styles gained significant holdings, and a large proportion of the daily admission funds in July went to Cycle and finance.

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Industry structure, we It can also be seen that the huge inflow of foreign capital in July was more concentrated in the non-traditional heavy positions sector. The northbound position structure shows that food and beverage, medicine, home appliances, electronics, banking and non-banking finance are the traditional heavyweight industries of northbound funds. These six industries account for about 60%of the total northbound positions and can be regarded as foreign capital in history The favorite sector. However, according to our statistics, less than 40%of the approximately 65 billion incremental funds that have entered the market since July have flowed into the top 6 industries mentioned above, which has caused a significant shift from the previous allocation behavior. Among them, the net inflows of computers, machinery and equipment, and chemicals are all over 4 billion, which obviously exceeds the inflows of food, beverage, medicine, and household appliances.

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Why is there a big short-term move in and out in the north?

Since July, northbound funds have fluctuated significantly, and the inflow style has also been rotating rapidly since June. We believe that the nature of funds is the dominant factor that determines the recent flow rhythm and style.

According to our method of splitting northbound funds, we can roughly correspond to the fund attributes according to the type of custodian institutions of land stock funds. Among them, most of the overseas long-term allocation funds are custody in the seats of foreign banks; for foreign exchange funds such as hedge funds and quantitative funds, most of them are managed by the PB system of foreign investment banks for transaction convenience; and are hosted by Chinese brokerage institutions. Funds, the probability of”fake foreign investment” may be greater.

We believe that the”real foreign capital” in the traditional sense basically belongs to the first category mentioned above, that is, long-term allocation funds, which pay more attention to long-term allocation income and the configuration style is relatively stable; the latter two are more Most of them belong to transactional short-term funds, which are quite different from the”true foreign capital” we generally understand. They tend to pay more attention to short-term timing, and the inflow style fluctuates greatly.

Allocation funds are the mainstream, and the long-term trend is the key.

In the long run, allocation funds are the mainstream trend. According to our framework assumptions, with funds on foreign banks representing allocated funds and funds on foreign investment banks or Chinese institutions representing transactional funds, from the perspective of historical changes, the size of allocated funds accounts for Than in the first half of 19 years and the first half of this year have experienced a clear upward trend. In the long run, allocated funds are not only the main body of capital going north, but the proportion of funds is increasing.

The investment preference of allocated funds is relatively stable. As the main component of northbound funds, the allocation preference of allocated funds is relatively stable. From the perspective of the holding positions of northbound funds, large consumption, finance and electronics have always been the direction of concentrated heavy positions. In the past three years, the positions of the top six heavy warehouse industries have remained stable at around 60%.

There is no need to pay too much attention to short-term big in and big out, long-term trends are the key. On the one hand, short-term overseas fluctuations, exchange rate adjustments, and index inclusion are all expected to trigger large-scale in-and-out transactions of short-term funds, and the proportion of transactional funds has declined, not the main force of foreign investment; Investment preferences are relatively stable, and large consumption is still the main line for long-term foreign investment allocation. Therefore, it is not necessary to pay too much attention to the short-term capital inflow and outflow in the short-term, and the short-term adjustment of trading funds should not be followed blindly. Long-term trends are the key.

This article is from the China Fund News