2020-07-15

Shenzhen property market regulation magnification! Multi-site policy”emergency brakes”, speculators go back and forth?

By yqqlm yqqlm
getInterUrl?uicrIvZQ=581d952bb9585246a4c9855c5a0a60f2 - Shenzhen property market regulation magnification! Multi-site policy"emergency brakes", speculators go back and forth?

△The data picture is May 18, Fuzhou, Fujian, a real estate under development and construction. China News Service reporter Zhang Bin photo

In the first half of the year, the Shenzhen property market of “one ride without dust” ushered in cold water regulation.

On July 15, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued three notices in a row, announcing the tightening of the housing purchase policy and combating speculative housing speculation.

Five areas have caused concern:

1. Upgrade and purchase restriction:settled in the city for 3 years and paid 36 months of continuous tax or social security talent Purchase commercial housing.

2. Block up”fake divorce”:The couple before divorce is calculated based on the total number of families before divorce. The family before divorce has 2 sets of commercial housing. Commercial housing is not allowed in this city.

3. Limited loan upgrade:No room under the name and no loan records still maintain a 30%down payment; No room under the name, but a loan record, 50%down payment for the purchase of ordinary houses ; 60%down payment for the purchase of non-ordinary housing. For a suite under the name, a 70%down payment for buying an ordinary house; a 80%down payment for buying an ordinary house.

4. Clear identification of ordinary housing:120 square meters in the suite, 144 square meters of building area, and the transaction price is not higher than 7.5 million yuan

5. Suppress overheating of second-hand houses:The exemption period for the value-added tax for personal housing transfers was adjusted from 2 years to 5 years.

For the background of the introduction of regulatory policies, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau said that since April this year, the Shenzhen real estate market has been active in transactions, the prices of second-hand housing have risen too fast, and hot-sale properties in some hotspots have appeared in new hot-sale and second-hand housing The phenomenon of falsely high housing listing prices has attracted widespread attention.

Since this year, the rapidly rebounding Shenzhen property market has been at the cusp. Has been exposed:”Second Light” of thousands of Marriott’s houses, thousands of people to grab 5 suites, a”tea drinking fee” of millions of yuan to buy a house,”jumping” of degree rooms, and multiple communities approaching the 100,000 yuan per square mark wait for news. Shenzhen’s second-hand house price growth has also been in the forefront of 70 large and medium cities for many months.

Zhuge house search data shows that 43,586 second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen in the first half of 2020, a cumulative increase of 39.9%year-on-year, are significantly higher than Beijing (-5.8%) and Shanghai (-8.4), which are also first-tier cities%). House prices are more”strong”. As of June 2020, the price of the second-hand residential market in Shenzhen was 69,599 yuan per square meter, a cumulative increase of 8.0%year-on-year in the first half of the year.

Market expectations continue to be bullish. The proportion of second-hand housing price-increasing housing in Shenzhen continued to rise this year. In June 2020, the proportion of housing price-increasing housing in Shenzhen was 54.6%, which was ahead of other cities, rising 2.2 percentage points from the previous month and 29.9 percentage points year-on-year.

Shenzhen’s regulation has long been expected.

On July 4, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction, went to Shenzhen for investigation and investigation, and held a symposium with representatives of Shenzhen Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau, real estate developers, real estate intermediaries and other representatives.

On July 8, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau visited Changsha for exchange and study.

In the first half of the year, the Shenzhen property market broke the common sense, and the rally is”one ride away from the dust”. What is going to learn from Changsha, which is the most severely regulated property market in the first- and second-tier cities? it goes without saying.

Some people summarized the new property market in Shenzhen as the”Changsha model”. The most similar point is that both of them put a”patch” on the talent policy. For example, this time, Shenzhen stipulates that it is necessary to settle down for 3 years and pay 36 consecutive months of tax or social security to purchase commercial housing. Previously, it was possible to purchase a house in Shenzhen, and the talent policy lowered the threshold for settlement, which was almost equivalent to the restriction of purchase.

Changsha City stipulates that foreigners can only buy a house after moving into Changsha for one year. At the same time, there are strict sales restrictions, such as:houses bought in the restricted purchase area of ​​Changsha City can only be sold after the property rights certificate has reached 4 years; purchase of the second suite must be issued 4 years after the first property right certificate is issued.

What results will the regulation policy bring?

With reference to Changsha, the result of heavy control is to make the housing price of Changsha, the provincial capital city, much lower than most hot first- and second-tier cities, and even less than some third- and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta.

According to Zhuge’s statistics, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen in June this year was close to 70,000 yuan (69,600 yuan) per square meter, ranking first among hundreds of cities, much higher than Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen and other places. . In the same period, second-hand housing prices in Changsha, regarded as a”low-priced housing” in key cities, were RMB 11,900 per square meter, ranking 48th. Shenzhen house prices are more than 6 times that of Changsha.

This gap is not directly proportional to the degree of economic development. Changsha’s GDP in 2019 exceeds 1.1 trillion yuan, which is one of 17 trillion-level cities, and its per capita GDP is also in the forefront of second-tier cities.

Shenzhen is not a case. Just entering the second half of the year, the property market in many places encountered a policy of “sparkling brakes”.

Regulation has shifted

In early July, three hot cities in Hangzhou, Dongguan, and Ningbo tightened their reins in succession.

For example:On July 6, Ningbo introduced ten new policies to stabilize the real estate market. Among them, three core contents have aroused market attention:

1. Expanding the scope of purchase restriction areas, and Yinzhou, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, and Haishu areas are included in the purchase restriction circle.

2. Expand land supply and stabilize land prices.

3. Combating the sale of cover plates:the pre-sale building area of ​​each batch is not less than 50,000 square meters, and the interval between each batch is not less than 3 months.

Regarding the reasons for the tightening of the regulation, Ningbo officials said that the real estate market in Ningbo has been generally hot in recent times. In the land market, Ningbo Tupai has fierce competition, land prices continue to rise, and the premium rate continues to rise. In the real estate market, price increases are expected to increase, and many real estates have repeated the phenomenon of queuing to buy a house and the”Japan CD”.

The simple summary is:In the first half of the year, Ningbo’s housing and local cities went hot. To prevent the agitation and escalation, the local government began to “water cool” the property market at the beginning of the second half of the year. Hangzhou and Dongguan are the same. (For the specific content and analysis, please refer to”The hot Yangtze River Delta property market has been poured cold water, but this is probably just the beginning”)

It can be seen that in the first half of the 182 days, the real estate market experienced sales from The closure of the property and the trading of the property market were suspended until the market gradually recovered, and then to the process of the overheated property market in some markets and the queuing to buy a house to reproduce. This also led to a shift in the property market policy from”overall loosening” to”partial tightening”.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of this year, 304 real estate-related policies were issued nationwide, up 21%year-on-year, refreshing the historical record of the number of adjustments in half a year. These more than 300 control policies are mainly based on supportive policies such as support and bail-outs, and in particular, talent policies such as lowering the threshold for settlement and providing subsidies for housing purchases account for a considerable proportion.

However, at the beginning of the second half, this policy warming has gradually subsided, and more signals of tightening control have been sent out.

The property market has built a”water blocking dam”

In addition to tightening local policies in more cities, real estate finance has also received Tight signs.

Data released by the central bank show that the supply of broad money M2 and the scale of social financing in the first half of the year increased by 11.1%and 12.8%year-on-year, respectively, both of which are new highs in the past two years.

Due to the asset nature of real estate, it is very sensitive to monetary policy. Experts pointed out that in the past few decades, the real estate market has risen whenever the currency is loose, the money supply has increased, and interest rates have fallen; while the monetary policy has tightened, interest rates have increased, and the money supply has decreased, the real estate market has declined.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that the last time M2 and Social Finance both maintained double-digit growth in 2015-2017. At that time, the high currency rate triggered a round of asset recovery and unprecedented real estate. Prosperity, and housing prices in many third- and fourth-tier cities have doubled.

So this time, will it reappear”yesterday”?

Li Yujia pointed out that in the early years, the proportion of new loans to real estate in banks accounted for 43%and 44%of new loans, but these years, under the guidance of corresponding policies, this proportion Decline, the proportion of real estate loans from January to May this year has dropped to 25%. Although the proportion of newly-increased loans from households in January-June increased from 25%in January-May to 29.4%, this is still a new low since the first half of 2013.

This shows that although a lot of money has been put on this year, the rebound in the commodity housing market has also led to an increase in mortgage loans, but nearly 70%of the”water” has not entered the property market.

Shenzhen and Shanghai strictly inspected the property mortgage loans and illegally flowed into the property market before, and then there were several asymmetric interest rate cuts by LPR. These all sent the same signal:Although the currency easing cycle has entered, the property market is under construction. Dams were built to curb excessive capital inflows into the real estate market.

The regulatory authorities have also recently issued a”warning”. A spokesman for the China Insurance Regulatory Commission said that at present, some market chaos has rebounded. Some high-risk shadow banks have revived, and some have attempted to make a comeback with new forms and new features. The leverage ratio of enterprises, households and other sectors rose. Some funds flowed into the stock market in violation of the rules, pushing up the asset bubble.

The spokesperson said that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission should strengthen supervision of capital flows, regulate cross-market capital transactions and business cooperation, prohibit bancassurance institutions from participating in off-site capital allocations, and strictly investigate acts of leverage and speculation. To prevent the creation of asset bubbles and ensure that financial resources truly flow to the areas and links most needed in the real economy.

Also see the property market loosening”one-day tour”

Another signal for tightening regulation comes from the policy of”one-day tour” cities.

In early July, news of the lifting of restrictions on purchases came from Huailai County, Hebei Province, in the Beijing region. The reason is that Huailai’s previous”purchase limit” policy document expired and was abolished, but no new documents have been issued locally to connect with it. However, on the 2nd, Huailai County officially issued a statement saying that it did not abolish the purchase restriction policy nor relax the regulation of the real estate market.

The industry regards it as the 13th place in the country to loosen the regulation policy”One Day Tour”.

The swift retreat after loosening the regulation means that the central government’s attitude towards”housing, housing, and speculation” is very firm.

This year’s government work report is the shortest in more than 40 years of reform and opening up, but it still emphasizes “no housing, no speculation”.

In the first half of the year, the property market went from cold to warm, and transactions in the real estate market in major cities basically recovered to the same period last year.

58 President of the Anju Guest House Research Institute Branch Zhang Bo said that it is expected that the overall relaxation of regulation will remain cautious in the second half of the year, especially for demand-side policies such as down payment ratios, purchase restrictions, and loan restrictions The government’s room for loosening is very limited.

He believes that, overall, the gap in the market transaction volume in the second half of the year will be gradually reduced compared with last year, but the property market in hot cities and regions may still come out of a new peak. The expected stability of house prices and land prices will be further strengthened, but the differentiation between quantity and price among cities will continue.

Qin Hong, the former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, pointed out that after the epidemic, differentiation is no longer sufficient to describe changes in the real estate market, and a”super-divided” pattern has emerged in the real estate market. For example, the land acquisition of the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of this year is mainly concentrated in five major urban agglomerations, accounting for 60%of the scale of land acquisition, of which an urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta accounts for 30%of the scale of the top 100 enterprises. From the perspective of housing prices, more than half of the top 20 cities in the first half of this year were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region.

In the medium and long term, my country’s current housing prices are at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions in the real estate market have not been substantially resolved. The super differentiation of the real estate market makes it more difficult for real estate to regulate and respond to risks. In this context, Qin Hong pointed out that in the future, the real estate market still needs to be firm in the”housing and housing is not speculation”, according to the city’s policy and other regulatory directions, it is recommended to use the metropolitan area as a scope to coordinate real estate development and regulation.

From:State is a train

Author:Pang loudly

Edit:Chen Hao Star

Editor:Zhou Rui