2020-07-15

Sudden shock? How to solve it? China Europe Fund’s most practical investment strategy for the second half of the year is coming

By yqqlm yqqlm

The market oscillated suddenly, how to solve it? Profitable settlement, or asset allocation? The choice between stock market and bond market seems to be in a dilemma. China Europe Fund will analyze the current market environment for you from multiple angles today, and present the most practical investment strategy for the second half of the year.

Macro level:economic recovery + monetary policy

Good news 1:The epidemic is well controlled, Economic recovery may continue to improve

Although the epidemic situation has occurred repeatedly in China, it does not rule out the possibility that it will still appear in the future, but overall, the certainty of domestic control of the epidemic situation and economic restoration It is arguably the strongest in the world. There is a high probability that the worst stage of economic data has passed, and the future may continue to improve.

However, the recovery is structural, and the recovery of external demand still has great uncertainty. At present, the orders for anti-epidemic materials have made a large contribution, and the consumption of selected items in domestic demand has recovered faster. The optional consumption and service consumption that have been greatly affected by the epidemic situation have improved, but there may still be recurrence. Related companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, still It is necessary to digest the impact of the epidemic, and even face survival difficulties.

Good news 2:There is still room for monetary policy

China’s monetary policy is the most “normal” among several economies (compared to overseas The central bank’s extremely loose monetary policy, such as daily QE and negative interest rates, etc., our monetary policy toolbox has many tools to use), I believe that the future policy layer will continue to use monetary instruments with caution.

But: It is worth noting that maintaining a reasonable Sino-U.S. interest rate differential is one of the phased goals of monetary policy. Ignoring this may produce unrealistic expectations for monetary policy. If there is a crisis event that exceeds expectations, monetary policy may also have countermeasures that exceed expectations.

Uncertainty at the macro level:

1. The “decoupling” between China and the US affects the economy and the market Potential shock (we don’t have to be lucky about the “decoupling”, but there is a certain uncertainty in the rhythm and scope of the “decoupling”);

2. Covered by the loose policy environment but still Existing debt problems (many business conditions of many companies may have deteriorated substantially);

3. The long-term existence and recurrence of the epidemic.

Operation strategy:What should we do in A shares?

Q1:What is the long-term outlook for the future?

Each time our strategy will be clear to everyone, we are optimistic about the long-term investment opportunities of China’s equity assets, especially optimistic about the major directions of technology, medical care, and consumption, In the short term, these types of assets may have accumulated a large increase, but in the long run, outstanding corporate equity in these areas is still China’s most valuable asset.

Q2:Has the wind direction changed?

No obvious signs.

In the course of this round of rising, banks, non-banks, coal, real estate and other sectors that had a small increase in the previous period showed short-term supplementary increases, and many investors were eager to determine the market style when they saw this sign. The shift of the market, or even a large proportion of positions, In the bull market, most of the sector’s round-up phenomenon is very obvious. In the long run, these companies are not enough to lead the Chinese economy out of a new round of up-cycle. Customers are not recommended to bet on market style And do short-term operations.

Q3:The hottest rights and interests, what should I do now?

The epidemic control, economic recovery, and excess liquidity are the main reasons for the continued rise of many types of assets after the crisis. But neither fundamentals nor liquidity support the market to continue to rise at this rhythm. Adjustments are inevitable, but it is difficult to predict when and what adjustments will be made under agitation. So what should I do?

For customers with different equity product allocation ratios:

1. Customers with too many equity product allocations can partially reduce their positions in batches, but Don’t overdo it and leave completely;

2. Customers with a proper proportion of equity products don’t need to suffer from gains and losses and let themselves reduce the urge to trade;

3. Customers with too low equity positions, don’t To chase higher, it is better to wait for the market to normalize and build a position. If you must buy it, you should buy long-term valuable assets and look at its subsequent performance from a three-to-five-year perspective. Do not increase your position with the rise.

The restless heart of the restless market, before various trading impulses, first think about the following questions:

1. Customers who want to be safe, need to think about whether they can Find a safer safe haven for funds;

2. Customers who want to buy after a redemption and fall before buying should consider whether they can have the courage to buy in large proportions when the market is extremely pessimistic. Did the several rounds of decline also achieve low positions and increase positions;

3. Customers who want to chase high should think about whether they can withstand the process of squeezing bubbles after excessive rise

If the reason tells you that the answers to these questions are negative, then we still recommend that customers maintain a reasonable proportion of the configuration and hold it for a long time. After all, short-term excessive force may lead to unsatisfactory long-term results. In the current market turmoil, we recommend that you awe the market. Grasp the long-term probability and give up short-term gambling timing.

Q4:Investment advice for other types of products?

1, Funds investing in bonds

Overall, after more than two years of bond bulls, investors’ The income expectation needs to be adjusted downwards appropriately. It is recommended to use the risk control capability as an important reference index for selecting bond funds and to allocate it as a long-term asset allocation item to reduce the cost loss caused by frequent transactions and trade time for space.

2. Funds investing in US stocks: Loose liquidity and Trump’s Appeals for re-election may continue to boost equity performance. U.S. stocks may continue to bubble before the election, but this increase lacks support for economic fundamentals and substantial improvement in corporate profits. It will also face adjustments in the future. Epidemic or other small probability events will still exist May cause an unexpected shock to the capital market, investors are advised to avoid it as much as possible.

3. Funds investing in Hong Kong stocks: There is indeed a clear valuation advantage over A-shares, but Hong Kong, which is sandwiched between Sino-US confrontation and gaming, will suffer more in the future Due to the influence of more, more complicated and unpredictable political factors, there is uncertainty about the certainty and continuity of the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks, and investors are advised to configure carefully.

4. Funds that invest in gold: Individual investors are strongly discouraged from using it as a trading product, because you will directly play the game with top global macro hedge funds and central banks of various countries as a avoidance Risk assets can be appropriately allocated.

5. Funds that invest in crude oil: In the short term, there may be trading opportunities, but participation is not recommended until the end of the epidemic.