2020-07-03

The constitution was revised successfully! Putin can work until 2036

By ddzyx
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On July 2, the Russian Electoral Commission announced that it has completed the amendment of the Russian Constitution The referendum counted all votes, and the results showed that 77.92%of voters were in favor of amending the constitution and 21.27%were against it.

This voting result means that Putin’s annual constitutional revision drama officially closed.

Although this constitutional amendment involves political, economic and other aspects, the focus of public opinion is still the issue of election after the expiration of the current president’s term. After obtaining public opinion authorization, Putin can breathe a sigh of relief, his political space will become larger, and he can independently decide whether to participate in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2024 and 2030, which also means that President Putin can do up to 2036.

But from the perspective of time, the challenges facing Putin and Russia are not over. How to get out of the severe economic recession and how to achieve a smooth transfer of power are all real issues that Putin needs to solve in the future.

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July 1st, Moscow, Russian capital, staff at a polling station in the school basketball hall Waiting for voters to vote

The”middle moment” of the Xiu Xianxi drama

Putin’s Xiu Xianxi drama since 1 It has been six months since the performance of the month.

According to the original plan, the referendum on the Constitution of the Russian Federation is scheduled for April 22 this year. The sudden new epidemic situation disrupted the above-mentioned arrangements. Facing the rapidly growing epidemic situation, Putin had to consider delaying the holding of a referendum on constitution amendment.

On March 25, Russia added 163 new crown cases, with a total of 658 confirmed cases. On the same day, Putin announced a national holiday for a week and delayed the referendum on constitutional amendments, but did not determine the specific date of the referendum.

After that, the rapid spread of the epidemic was clearly beyond Putin’s expectations, and it also allowed him to see potential threats and challenges. According to a survey by the Russian non-governmental research organization Lewada Analysis Center, Putin’s approval rating in April fell from 63%in March to 59%, which is the lowest record of his 20 years in politics.

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(According to the list of Russian non-governmental research organizations According to a survey conducted by the Wada Analysis Center, Putin’s approval rating in April fell from 63%in March to 59%, the lowest record of his 20 years in politics.

Strongman Putin will not sit back and watch the approval rating Continue to decline, because once the approval rate drops below 50%, the referendum may not be expected. According to the regulations, the approval rate of the constitutional referendum must reach more than 50%to pass. Although the approval rate of the president surveyed by private organizations is not directly related to the approval rate of the constitutional referendum, Putin apparently smelled the changes in public opinion.

For this reason, when Russia’s new crown epidemic is still climbing, Putin suddenly said on April 28 that he would implement phased unblocking measures within two weeks.

Putin said:”We have managed to slow the spread of the epidemic, and the number of new cases discovered each day has stabilized, but this should not reassure us. The situation is still very difficult and assists us to review the plans and measures of the epidemic prevention Experts and scientists say that the epidemic has not yet reached its peak.”

Putin ordered all regional governments to work out a phased unblocking plan starting May 12, and requested officials to formulate a new emergency package to Support the economy.

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On June 23, in Moscow, Russia, a man wearing a mask took a bus

In addition to alleviating public pressure caused by the epidemic through unblocking, Putin obviously also realized that the time for the referendum cannot be delayed any longer, because the longer the delay, the more likely it is that you don’t want to see it. result.

And when to put it specifically, it is quite painstaking.

The inside story of the specific decision is unknown. Judging from the results, the military parade held on the 75th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War was held on June 24, and the referendum was scheduled on June 25. By July 1st, it had reached the”mid-time” of the whole year. The close connection of the two in time may not be a coincidence, but reflects the good intentions of the Putin team:

Let the energy of the military parade explode help the referendum on constitutional amendment.

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(June 24, Russia The capital Moscow solemnly held a military parade to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin (front right) addressed the representatives of the troops under review after the military parade on the Red Square in Moscow.

The”middle moment” of the president’s career?

If Putin successfully holds office until 2036, this year coincides with the middle of his”presidential career”:

2000 to 2020, in addition to the four-year term of prime minister, Putin He has served as president for 16 years;

2020-2036, Putin theoretically has 16 years of presidential career.

Therefore, this year may be exactly the midpoint of the president’s career.

According to the constitutional amendment passed by the referendum, Putin can still participate in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2024 and 2030. Therefore, in theory, Putin can remain president of the Russian Federation until 2036.

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(June 1, at The official residence of President Ogalyovo of Moscow Region, Russia, Putin held a working meeting with the leadership of the Central Election Commission and members of the drafting working group on the constitutional amendment. On that day, Putin announced that the referendum on the constitutional amendment will be held on July 1)

But this is only a theoretical inference. The realization of this speculation depends on two conditions:

First, after the expiration of the current term of the president in 2024, Putin is willing to participate in 2024 and Two general elections in 2030, and can win in each general election; second, before 2036, Putin’s health status does not have too many problems, and he can effectively control the political situation.

However, from a practical point of view, the above ideas may face some variables.

First of all, whether Putin will participate in the two general elections in 2024 and 2030 is still uncertain.

In an interview with TV on June 21st, Putin said that he would not rule out running for the president again after the constitutional amendment was passed. He said:”I do not rule out this possibility, if there is a possibility of election in the constitution. Look, it will be clear by then.” Such a cautious attitude means that Putin has the initiative to participate in the election. Whether Putin will run in the final election may not only depend on Putin’s personal wishes, but also be constrained by the evolution of the domestic situation and the international landscape.

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(July 1st, a vote in the Russian capital Moscow The station is conducting a referendum on constitutional amendments. Putin showed his passport to the members of the election committee when he arrived at the venue.

Secondly, the natural law is an iron law that cannot be avoided. Putin is 67 years old this year. By 2030, Putin will be 77 years old. By the end of his term, he will reach 83 years old. From an international comparison point of view, there are many precedents for politicians active in politics in the early years, such as Ezebsi, who became the first elected president after the 88-year-old became the Tunisian political upheaval at the end of 2014, and 92-year-old Malaysia in 2018. Mahathir, the seventh prime minister. However, considering the specific national conditions of men’s average life expectancy of 67.5 years, 83 years old still seems a bit challenging.

Moreover, even though Putin was healthy and successfully elected at that time, such a power arrangement seemed to fall into the old path of Soviet”lifetime”.

On January 18 this year, Putin once again said in a meeting with World War II veterans in St. Petersburg that he would not follow the old road of Soviet lifelong system. Putin believes that lifelong system does not provide the only way for the highest power conversion, which is an important reason for the backwardness and rigidity of the Soviet Union.

Therefore, whether Putin will run in the two general elections of 2024 and 2030 is still uncertain.

The”middle moment” of a century of transformation?

When Putin took office in 2000, he yelled out the words”Give me 20 years and give you a strong Russia!”

If Putin holds office until 2036, Putin will control Russia’s time has reached 36 years. If we count from the early 1990s, 2036 will be close to the mid-point of the post-Soviet Russia’s century-long transformation (2040). By then, it may be more appropriate to summarize the significance and value of Putin’s legacy to Russian political development.

Why should we measure political transformation in a hundred years?

Bao Gangsheng put forward an important proposition in the article”The Difficulties in the Transformation of Great Powers:Looking at the Future from History”, which is subject to autonomous civilization, national complexity, Geopolitical competition, the transformation of large countries is facing greater challenges. Mr. Bao’s proposition can make an inference. It is precisely because of the huge challenge that the road to a big country’s transformation may be longer.

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On June 24, soldiers lined up to participate in a military parade held on the Red Square in Moscow, Russia

When the British Glorious Revolution announced the establishment of parliamentary sovereignty, the rule of law and other modern political civilization elements in 1688, its neighboring France was still under the rule of an absolute monarch who declared”I am the country”. In other words, constitutional monarchy is nothing more than a”crisy heresy” of the”small merchant country” next door;

In 1789, the French Revolution completely overthrew the absolute monarchy, and the concept of modern politics crossed the English Channel and was under France. Roots, and Germany at that time was often in a state of scattered states;

In 1871, Germany achieved unity, but both the West (mainly the United Kingdom) and the German intellectual elite at that time believed that Germany It is impossible to become a Western country like Britain and France, because Germany’s deep-rooted political culture is incompatible with modern political ideas. After the tragic lessons of the two world wars, Germany finally accepted the basic concepts and principles of modern politics, marked by the reunification of Germany and Germany in 1990, and at this time, Russia’s road of transformation had just begun.

Using the above historical coordinates as a reference to speculate that Russia’s road to transformation may take a long time.

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St. Petersburg, Russia, a lady holding a piece that says”I want to live in a free The slogan of”Russia”

At the beginning of the transition, Russia naively thought that as long as a constitution that conforms to modern political ideas and a market economy are implemented, it can be quickly integrated into the West.

However, the complexity of reality quickly shattered this simple fantasy. Putin took the baton from Yeltsin and renovated the house built by Yeltsin in his own style. Today’s revision of the constitution is only a simple repair of the shape of the house, and the interior style of the room has long been different from the Yeltsin period.

In any case, Russia’s road of transformation has been deeply traced by Putin. As for where Putin will eventually lead Russia, it will take time to observe.

Author | Zhang Jianwei

Editor| He Yan

Typesetting | Cai Cai