U.S. Policy to China and Sino-U.S. Relations in the Epidemic Situation
Trump After the government took office, the competitiveness and confrontation of the US policy toward China have increased significantly. The global spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic could have been an opportunity to strengthen cooperation and improve relations between the two countries. However, the US government not only did not show its due power and basic international morality, but launched an offensive against China from various fields. Isolate and suppress China. What is reflected behind this is the current mainstream way of thinking in the US strategic community. It not only dominates the current US policy toward China, but will also have an important impact on Sino-US relations in the future.
Under the epidemic, the United States launched a new strategic offensive against China
After the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia, the United States did not relax China’s Strategic pressure, but to strengthen the offensive against China from different fields at the same time.
(1) Strengthening the information public opinion war
After the outbreak, the US government and the media cooperated with each other, which significantly increased the intensity of information attacks on China. Trump and Pompeio falsely accuse New Crown Virus of”Chinese virus” or”Wuhan virus”, National Security Affairs Assistant O’Brien Publicly stated that”China’s cover of the epidemic delayed the response of the international community.” In addition to slandering China, disseminating false news, and inciting anti-China public opinion, mainstream media such as the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal also directly published racism and other racisms such as “China is a real Asian sick man” and “new crown virus crisis exposes the failure of China’s governance system”. Ideology means strong articles that attack the Chinese government and hurt the feelings of the Chinese people. After the Chinese government took punitive measures against the three Wall Street Journal reporters in Beijing, the US government took the opportunity to list many news agencies in the United States as”foreign missions” and”expelled” Chinese media in the name of a limited number of people. American reporters have brought the US information war on China into a more substantive stage.
(2) Accelerate the promotion of “selective decoupling
Among US policy options, there is a clear intention to weaken China’s economy by decoupling Sino-US trade. Despite reaching the”first-stage trade agreement” with me, the US government is still promoting”selective decoupling” between China and the United States, while reducing the dependence of the US economy on my country’s industrial chain, and pushing domestic enterprises to”return” to the US. In an interview with the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, US Secretary of Commerce Ross said that the epidemic”helps accelerate the return of manufacturing”, which fully reflects the US government’s psychology of”decoupling”.
After the outbreak, the United States took the lead in evacuating overseas Chinese from Wuhan, taking the lead in taking measures such as suspending flights and restricting Chinese entry. The U.S. House of Representatives recently established a”Congressional Supply Chain Membership Group” with the intention of”maintaining the security of the U.S. national supply chain” as the epidemic spreads, and its main direction is also China.”High-tech decoupling” is another focus of”selective decoupling” in the US epidemic. The US court ruled that Congress has the power to prohibit federal agencies from purchasing products from Huawei, and the US Senate passed a bill to allocate $1 billion to remove Huawei’s communications equipment. It can be expected that as the epidemic spreads and its impact continues to expand, the United States will also take more measures to promote”decoupling” from China and take the opportunity to weaken China’s position in the global industrial chain.
(3) Continue to challenge China’s “sovereign red line”
After Trump came to power, the US policy toward Taiwan has undergone major adjustments and the US Congress continues to use it frequently The domestic legislative power interferes in China’s internal affairs and challenges the”One China” principle. As a result, the US government and Congress have formed a trend of”strategic convergence, strategic coordination, and tactical response” on Taiwan-related issues.
The US House of Representatives unanimously passed the”Taipei Act” in early March, requiring the US executive branch to take practical action to help Taiwan consolidate the so-called”state diplomacy” and participate in international organizations, and strengthen bilateral economic and trade relations. The new crown pneumonia epidemic coincided with the end of the election of leaders in Taiwan. In order to show support for Tsai English authorities, the United States has repeatedly broken through the Sino-US consensus and challenged the”one China” principle. Secretary of State Pompeo sent Tsai Ing-wen a high-profile congratulatory message in his official capacity, and received high-profile Vice-President Lai Qingde’s visit to the United States in Taiwan.
In addition, at the end of January 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the”Tibet Policy and Support Bill of 2019″. On June 17, the United States signed the”Uyghur Human Rights Bill of 2020″ into law. Pompeo’s visit Asia Times frequently used the so-called”Xinjiang issue” to provoke relations between Central Asian countries and China, inciting and fostering non-governmental organizations to engage in anti-China activities.
(4) Continue to strengthen military pressure
After the Trump administration came to power, the intensity of military competition against China increased significantly. After the outbreak, the United States further increased the intensity of military deterrence and military confrontation. In the direction of the Taiwan Strait, military operations were conducted against our military’s strategic cruises and joint exercises. In the direction of the South China Sea, the so-called”Southern Sea Freedom Navigation Operation” was implemented, and its aircraft tracked our ships in a dangerous manner for a long time and at close range.
In the deployment of military power, the US military is more focused on actual combat, focusing on accelerating the deployment of land-based guidance systems, in an attempt to weaken or offset the”PLA’s anti-intervention/regional rejection capabilities.” In terms of international disarmament, the US military has proposed that China should participate in the US-Russia nuclear disarmament negotiations, trying to put me in a passive position in international public opinion.
The impact of the US policy of strengthening dialogue and containment on Sino-US relations
US policy toward China in the epidemic, The impact on Sino-US relations is both realistic and far-reaching. It makes China further understand the essence of the US strategy towards China. At the same time, the hostile sentiment and actions brought about by the United States’ strengthening of its containment policy against China have pushed the development of relations between the two countries in a more negative direction.
(1) The official and private hostility between the two countries has increased
After the outbreak, the US’s actions have not only lacked a minimum of compassion and international Morally, and using the epidemic as a tool for gaming among major powers, it has”stigmatized” China and even made use of the Taiwan issue to make a fuss against the”one-China” principle bottom line and dispatch warships to the South China Sea to conduct the so-called”Freedom of Navigation”. These actions have greatly hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and aroused people’s aversion to the US government.
In the United States, under the noise of mainstream media, the public has also raised a new wave of resentment and discrimination against the Chinese. The voice of China’s so-called “proliferation epidemic” and claims for claims against China are also endless. The exchange of countries lies in the blind date between the people. If the hostility between the people of the two countries continues to rise, it will be more difficult for China-US relations to return to a virtuous circle.
(2) The “decoupling” direction of the two countries Substantial and systematic development
In the past two years, out of the need to suppress and contain China, the United States has adopted decoupling measures in various fields. Especially in the economic field, it has successively signed free trade agreements with North America, South Korea and other countries and regions, and the free trade agreements with Europe and Japan are also in the stage of intense promotion. Due to China’s special position in the global industrial chain and the close economic ties between China and the United States, the United States'”uncoupling” intention is greatly restricted.
In this epidemic, the United States took advantage of China’s domestic economic activities and affected foreign economic and trade relations to face certain difficulties. It adopted methods such as coercion to attract allies and “stigmatize” China. Forms, culture and other fields started simultaneously, isolating China and establishing a separate system to promote the development of”decoupling” in a systematic direction.
(3) Increased risk of military confrontation between the two countries
From the current situation, China and the United States have great potential in conventional war, In particular, both countries are nuclear powers. Kissinger once pointed out that If there is a conflict between China and the United States, the situation will be worse than the two world wars that almost destroyed European civilization. Under such circumstances, the large-scale war between the two countries is greatly restricted.
But the problem is that the United States has used the epidemic to launch offensives against China from various fields, frequently launching the so-called”Freedom of Navigation” operation in the South China Sea, and successively facing China on a series of issues involving China’s national sovereignty and security In particular, on the Taiwan issue, once the”one China” principle is breached, the risk of military confrontation between the two countries will increase.
Conflict between big powers is not the fate of Sino-US relations
China-US relations have come to a new At the crossroads, how to crack the historic issue of competition between big powers, test the wisdom of the policymakers of the two countries, and also affect the future and destiny of the world. Historical cooperation and coexistence among the major powers in history have all had successful precedents. Whether Sino-US relations will eventually fall into conflict competition or return to benign cooperation will ultimately depend on the strategic choices of the two countries, especially the choice of the US. For both countries, it is particularly important for rational decision-making to soberly understand the changes that are happening in the world today and to understand the future development trend.
(1) The new operation of scientific understanding of the world Way
Human society has entered the third decade of the 21st century, and today’s world is very different from history. In the Middle Ages of Europe, the scene in which kings and feudal lords of various countries could build forts and be isolated from each other is impossible to reproduce today. Whether it is climate change, global epidemics or terrorism, and artificial intelligence out of control, the local problem is a global problem crisis. Once it breaks out, each country cannot be alone and cannot face it independently. Only when countries work together to strengthen cooperation can the real solution of the problem be promoted. .
After the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia, the recovery of global supply chains and demand, as well as market confidence, are by no means a short-term process, nor can they be accomplished by a single country. Therefore, the world today has increasingly become a community of interests. Security and development are of global significance to some extent. Old problems must also be examined from a new perspective. Both need to be resolved with global thinking. Way. Without realizing this reality, blindly emphasizing”national priority” may result in short-term gains, but it is ultimately the long-term national interests that are damaged.
(2) Fully understand the reality of the interdependence between China and the United States
As the two largest economies in the world, China and the United States have formed the one with you and the one with you Interests blend situation. Historical experience shows that the period of healthy development of Sino-US relations is also the period in which the economic growth of both sides is the most stable. It is the interests of both parties that damage the bilateral stalemate. The US trade war with China in 2019 will have a certain impact on China’s export trade, but it will also have a profound impact on the US economy. In August 2019, U.S. corporate investment fell for the first time in three years, especially when the yields of 10-year Treasury bonds and two-year Treasury bonds were inverted, indicating a sharp rise in the risk of future economic recession. To this end, the President of the American Chamber of Commerce Donohue called,”Trade tensions with China must end.”
During the epidemic, when the Chinese economy was affected, the global stock market was hit hard, and the United States was not spared. The three major stock indexes fell across the board, and the fuse mechanism was triggered multiple times within a week. This is the first time since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The interdependence between China and the United States is not only manifested in the economy. Whether it is dealing with global issues such as climate change, counter-terrorism, and nuclear proliferation, it is impossible to find a solution to the problem without the joint participation of the two countries. Kissinger once said that China or the United States cannot solve the problem alone, and only through Sino-US cooperation can the problem be solved. If China and the United States do not cooperate, the world will split into opposing camps.
(3) Rethinking the way big countries get along
Since modern times, the power policies and expansionist culture of Western powers have occupied an absolute advantage in the competition with other countries. It has established the global leadership of the West for hundreds of years. In today’s world, the “law of the jungle” that is weak on meat and strong on food is outdated. Although the phenomenon of bullying the weak by the powerful still exists, it is simply not feasible to forcefully change a country or to imitate the way the Romans erased the Carthage from the earth. Even if it is weak, such as Afghanistan or Iraq, the United States is still powerless. For a country like China with profound cultural heritage and the loyalty and faith of hundreds of millions of people, the United States cannot change it, let alone destroy it.
For quite a long time to come, the United States cannot stop China’s development, and China does not have the intention and conditions to fully replace and challenge the United States. Pure power politics and power calculation without moral dimension will turn every difference between China and the United States into an emotional and life-and-death contest, which is extremely unfavorable for both countries and the world. Since global resources are limited and competition is inevitable, fair and regulated competition can be adopted; since cooperation is essential, it is possible to further expand the field and depth, and promote understanding and mutual trust in equality and mutual benefit and working together to solve problems. .
The Chinese government has repeatedly stressed that the Pacific Ocean is large enough to accommodate China and the United States. As long as the U.S. side can handle China-U.S. relations properly and prudently in the same way as China, with a responsible attitude toward history, the people of the two countries, and the world, the two countries are likely to work together to create a new situation in the development of relations between major powers.
Source:National Defense University
Author:Liu Wanxia Caoxian Yu Li deer