US withdraws from Poland, recruits experts:new geopolitical conflict or upsurge

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According to the US”Wall Street Journal” report, US President Trump has ordered the withdrawal of 9,500 American soldiers from Germany before September, and will limit the number of German and American troops from the current maximum of 52,000 to less than 25,000. After that, Trump held talks with Polish President Duda who visited the United States. Trump said that Poland proposed to increase the size of US troops stationed in Poland. The United States may deploy some US troops withdrawn from Germany to Poland. The United States intends to withdraw its troops from Germany, and Poland actively invites the United States to station troops in its own country. What kind of signal is behind this series of events? How does it affect the geopolitical situation in the world?

Insufficient military expenditure, U.S. troops stationed in Germanysignificantly reduced

As a NATO ally, the United States has undoubtedly invested more in military spending than other countries. This is why US President Trump has always strongly urged other NATO countries to increase their military spending. As the European country with the largest number of U.S. troops, Germany was the first to be the focus of American bombardment.

At the NATO Leaders’ Summit in Wales in 2014, NATO member states committed to increase national defense spending to 2%of their GDP in 2024 at the latest, which is called”2%target”. However, the German Chancellor Merkel made it clear that according to the actual situation, the German military spending will not be able to achieve this goal until 2031, which is obviously the same as Trang The general requirements are very different. At the NATO Leaders Summit held in July 2018,

The United States accused Germany of deliberately slowing down the growth of military spending, thereby seeking more benefits for the country. However, the German side was not satisfied with the US side’s doubts.

In addition to military disputes, the United States has taken a strong opposition to the”Beixi-2″ natural gas pipeline project jointly constructed by Germany and Russia, because this Russian-European cooperation violates the United States The strategic thinking of long-term sanctions against Russia has disrupted the US sanctions plan against Russia to a certain extent. In addition, there is no small conflict between the unilateralism policy of the United States and the multilateralism policy pursued by Germany, resulting in the two countries having different positions and disagreements in many important international events. These incidents further expanded the contradiction between the two countries, which ultimately led to the United States making a decision to reduce the German garrison.

Strongly invite US troops, Poland borrows from the United States to fight with Russia

The country’s foreign policy is always based on its own interests, as long as There are common interests, and even a centenary feud between France and Germany can be put down, but as long as conflicts of interest exist, even the most apparent relations between the two countries may be broken, as is the case with Poland and Russia, which once belonged to the same source.

In the 16th and 17th centuries, Poland and its neighbour Lithuania formed a federation and became the absolute hegemony of Eastern Europe at that time. With the growing ambitions of Poland, in 1609, Polish King Sigismund III went to Russia The declaration of war, followed by the Polish-Lithuanian coalition forces occupying Moscow in 1610, until 1612, the Russian talent successfully drove Polish out of Moscow . By the 18th century, the strong-weak relationship between the two countries was completely reversed. Russia was constantly strengthened by Peter the Great and Ekaterina the Great, while Poland has continued to decline in strength due to ethnic issues and special political systems within the country. In the face of this balance, Russia has become the new overlord of Eastern Europe. During 1772-1795, the Russian Empire cooperated with Ottomans and Prussia to divide Poland three times, and Poland once fell. It wasn’t until 123 years later that the October Revolution in Russia broke out and the Austro-Hungarian Empire tended to disintegrate. The treaty that divided the three countries that divided Poland was invalidated, and Poland was able to restore independence and rebuild the country.

The contradiction between Poland and Russia has a long history and is almost irreconcilable. It is precisely because of Poland’s request for the United States to increase the size of the garrison. Threatening”. The United States is clearly happy with this, and deploying troops in Poland is a win-win option.

Poland is located in the middle of the Eastern European Plain, and its capital Warsaw is only more than 700 kilometers away from Moscow, if the United States is in The increase in the number of troops stationed in this garrison will greatly enhance Russia’s military operations capabilities, and Russia will also have to increase its vigilance against Poland, which to a certain extent hinders Russia’s military strategic deployment.

Garrison in Poland, the United States and Russia open up new battlefields

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has always wanted to restore its status as a great power. However, the United States is pressing everywhere , Tit-for-tat, always treat Russia as a priority strategic target. This time the United States and Poland joined forces to jointly contain Russia.

As an important guarantee for national security, the layout of the US and Russia’s nuclear weapons has always been the focus of the military strategic layout of the two countries. During the Cold War, nuclear weapons were deployed to the European region, which once made Europe a preparatory battlefield for the US-Russia nuclear weapons war. After the end of the Cold War, European countries have asked the United States to withdraw nuclear weapons in order to maintain their own national security.

At this time, the United States is seeking to increase troops or even deploy nuclear weapons in Poland, perhaps with the strategic intention of enhancing military deterrence and strategic containment of Russia through front-end deployment. Both the United States and NATO regard Poland as an important barrier and key fulcrum against the Russian military. If you can deploy enough military weapons in Poland in advance, you only need to send combatants to Russia when NATO is in war with Russia. To a great extent, reduce the burden of combatants, lightly put into battle, and improve the mobility and flexibility of the team, to a certain extent, make up for the problem of insufficient strength caused by off-site operations, and thus form a substantial deterrent to Russia. At the same time, because Poland is adjacent to Russia, the United States can use this to increase its monitoring of Russian military activities, thereby effectively curbing the development of Russian military power.

A series of actions by the United States will surely cause a strong reaction from Russia. Once the United States deploys a large number of troops in Poland, Russia will also deploy corresponding forces to respond. By then, Poland will not only be unable to obtain the bright prospects for peaceful development in fantasy, but will push regional tensions to the forefront. Poland in the center of the storm will be a hundred times more difficult than it is now.

The strategic game between the United States and Russia will continue for some time to come, and Poland, which attempts to take over the US garrison, may also become a battlefield for the game between the two countries and the United States to contain Russian military forces. Key nodes, new geopolitical conflicts may recur. (Xi Fengyi, Huang Ping, Zhang Haoyue, Pang Chaowei)