What is Mother Yang thinking? 400 billion MLF operation,”interest rate cut” has not come for three months, can’t you buy a house? ｜Happiness
According to the announcement of the Central Bank on July 15, the 400 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation was launched on that day, and the winning bid rate remained at 2.95%, which was maintained for the third consecutive month. constant.
Since this year, Yang Ma has conducted MLF twice The interest rate adjustments were a one-year MLF reduction of 10 basis points to 3.15%on February 17, and a one-year MLF reduction of 20 basis points to 2.95%on April 15. After that, Yang Ma has not adjusted for the third consecutive month.
Yang’s mother hasn’t adjusted for three months, will the LPR fall in July? Why is the MLF interest rate not reduced? Is the lower interest rate the better? Is there any interest rate cut in the second half of the year? Do you want to buy a house now?
Behind the hot new policy, it also brings a series of problems and thinking to home buyers.
Today, on this issue, Happiness hotly invited a real estate expert to answer your questions. Let’s take a look at what local real estate experts say .
Q1:Yang Ma did not make adjustments for three months, will the LPR in July fall again?
Interface property market Nanjing:
This MLF operation is a one-year period with an interest rate of 2.95%, which is the same as last time. Since May, the MLF interest rate has been maintained at 2.95%for three consecutive months, unchanged.
As a weather vane for LPR, the MLF (Interim Lending Facility) interest rate remains flat and remains unchanged, with a high probability that this month’s LPR rate cut will fall short.
For example, on May 15, the Central Bank announced It is said that the People’s Bank of China carried out a medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation of 100 billion yuan, and the MLF bid interest rate was 2.95%, which was the same as the previous period. As of May 20, the People’s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Interbank Center to announce that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on May 20, 2020 is:3.85%for 1-year LPR and 4.65%for LPR over 5 years. The same as last month.
So MLF (medium-term loan facility) as a reference basis for LPR quotation, it is indeed possible to spy on the large probability change of LPR of the month from the operation of MLF by the central bank.
21st Century Business Herald:
LPR may be lowered.
In August 2019, the central bank promoted the market-oriented reform of loan interest rates. After the reform, LPR refers to MLF, and the loan interest rate is anchored to LPR. According to central bank data, the one-year LPR on June 20 was 3.85%, and the LPR over five years was 4.65%, which were 30BP and 15BP lower than the end of last year. On July 20 (next Monday), a new round of quotations will be conducted.
According to the new LPR reform regulations in August last year, the MLF interest rate is the main reference basis for LPR quotes for the month. According to the general law since the LPR reform, the MLF interest rate does not move in the current month, and usually the LPR quotation will also remain stable. Wang Qing said that, especially in the context of the recent rise in the money market capital interest rate hub and the rise in bank marginal capital costs, the probability of LPR quotes this month will remain unchanged.
But Wang Qing also pointed out that the regulatory authorities have made it clear that the financial system will make a profit of 1.5 trillion yuan to the real economy this year. Among them, the decline in interest rates, including corporate loan interest rates, should reach 930 billion. Comprehensively considering the decline in corporate general loan interest rates in the first half of the year and the annual profit target, it is not excluded that while the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in July, commercial banks slightly lowered the 1-year LPR quotation used as a reference for corporate general loan interest rate pricing, thus Guide the possibility of a more substantial decline in corporate loan interest rates.
“LPR falls, then the loan interest rate will fall along with it; LPR does not fall, the loan interest rate also has to fall. The supervisory department window guides the bank to require the LPR spread to be reduced every quarter, so although the second quarter of this year LPR has not been adjusted, but our loan interest rate has also declined. In short, the loan interest rate decline is greater than LPR.” A person in the asset and liability department of a stock bank said.
Q2 :Why is the MLF interest rate not reduced? Is the lower interest rate the better?
The interest rate is not as low as possible, and this time it is not expected to be lowered. Looking at the two parts formed by LPR, one is MLF, and the other is the increase and decrease (bank quotes). In the past six months, the MLF interest rate has been declining (driving the LPR down). If the MLF guides alone, it will weaken the significance of reform.
At the press conference on financial statistics for the first half of 2020 held by the central bank on July 10, Guo Kai, deputy director of the central bank’s cargo administration department, made clear that the stance of monetary policy remains stable and the monetary policy is more flexible Moderately.
We now put more emphasis on the words moderate. Moderation has two meanings. One is that the total amount is moderate, and the credit is matched with the pace of economic recovery; the second is that the price is moderate. It is necessary to guide the further reduction of financing costs and make profits to the real economy. At the same time, it is necessary to realize that the appropriate downward interest rate is not the lower the interest rate, the better. Matching issues.
Q3 :Will interest rates be lowered in the second half of the year?
Real estate PLUS:
My judgment is, Yes, it will start in August at the fastest.
The reasons are as follows:
1, Entering the third wave of outbreaks overseas, the Chinese economy wants to return to 6%in the second half of the year The level of growth is still very difficult.
2. Since May, the impact of the overseas epidemic on my country’s exports has already appeared, and it will spread further, so domestic consumption and investment are required to hedge.
3. The most important goal of current economic management is to stabilize employment, and the demand for counter-cyclical adjustments such as monetary easing in the second half of the year will further increase.
4. June CPI rose 2.5%year-on-year, the increase was only 1 percentage point higher than that of May, and it is still relatively stable. The overall trend is to fall back. It may be again in August Downside, open up more room for interest rate cuts.
Q4 :Do you want to buy a house now?
Real estate PLUS:
1. Looking at policies in the short term First, looking at monetary policy, the MLF interest rate has not dropped, but the LPR interest rate remains There may be a drop. It happened once last year. If the five-year loan rate of LPR in July drops, you can buy it. The second is to look at the regulation and control policies. From the perspective of recent performances in various regions, it is likely that hot cities will tighten regulation in the second half of the year, so those who want to buy a house in a big city can start early.
2. Choose big cities, learn to put a long line Under the premise of sufficient funds, choose big cities, core metropolitan areas, and urban agglomerations. The higher the energy level, the safer, after all, these The urban population has increased significantly, and the economic strength is strong, but it is necessary to make good choices in the area and avoid the corners. At present, the property market is no longer suitable for short-term investment. It is necessary to take a long-term perspective. The short-term rise and fall of house prices are normal. As long as the house is in a good city and the supporting facilities are good enough, it is a high-quality asset.
3. If you don’t live by yourself, it’s better not to touch a small city. Work and live in a small town on the 3rd, 4th and 5th tiers, of course you can buy a house. Otherwise, it is best not to touch. It is important to know that housing prices in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities have been affected by shed reform in the short term, but in the long run, with the loss of population, investment properties have gradually weakened and the value of real estate is not large. Especially for”shrinking cities”, if there is no major benefit of sky-fall, it will gradually”hegang”, and the house may not be sold at a loss.