Apple iPhone 12 may lift the”super cycle”, various analysts are racing to look forward
Only one day away from Apple’s October 13 press conference, Apple is expected to announce a The most improved iPhone smartphone since 2014.
Analysts and investors generally predict that Apple’s latest mobile phone series iPhone 12 will be equipped with 5G, and set off a wave of upgrades among nearly 1 billion iPhone users worldwide.
The most important press conference
Independent analyst Wayne Lam told Yicai.com reporters that this rotation cycle will be a”super cycle””. He said:”This may prompt more consumers to make a decision to buy a new phone, because during the new crown pandemic, the importance of smart devices including mobile phones has become more apparent. Therefore, the release of Apple’s new phone is important for consumers. And the entire industry will be crucial.”
Daniel Morgan, vice president and senior portfolio manager of the financial institution Synovus, said that the main”super- The”cycle” occurred in 2014, when Apple introduced the iPhone 6.”But since 2014, iPhone releases have been more like ripples than waves.” Morgan said.
This conference is very critical for Apple, which lacks revolutionary hardware updates. In recent years, Apple’s growth has been dependent on its services and accessories business. At the press conference last month, Apple released a new generation of smart watches, and for the first time launched the Apple Watch without a smart phone.
Bernstein, a research institute, estimates that 18.5%of iPhone users (about 180 million people) plan to replace their phones in the next 12 months. In the past two years, Apple’s iPhone replacement rate has been maintained at about 16%.
Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) analyst Katy Huberty (Katy Huberty) predicts that Apple will sell 220 million iPhones in the fiscal year beginning this month, an increase from the previous year 22%, which will make the company’s annual revenue growth more than one-fifth, reaching 327.7 billion US dollars.
Huberti said that if Apple can attract more Android phone users to turn to Apple, then she expects iPhone sales to reach 240 million units.”We expect Apple’s upcoming conference will be the most important in many years.” She said in a report to customers.
Wedbush, a Wall Street brokerage, is even more aggressive. The agency said that 350 million of the 950 million iPhones worldwide should be upgraded, which will set off an unprecedented wave of replacements.
Pricing determines demand
This year, Apple’s stock price has risen by more than 50%. Analysts expect that if the pricing is right, the release of Apple’s new iPhone will boost supply chain companies’ stock prices. This means that domestic Apple supply chain companies including Lens Technology, Luxshare Precision, and GoerTek are expected to benefit.
Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released the latest research report on October 11, stating that the impact of Apple’s new phone release on supply chain companies mainly depends on the price of iPhone 12.”If the price of the iPhone 12 is lower than the iPhone 11 (starting price of US$699), we predict that the supply chain stock price will continue to rise after the launch of the new iPhone.”
According to Guo Mingchi’s prediction, Apple’s Four iPhones will be launched at this conference, ranging in size from 5.4 inches to 6.7 inches. These include an iPhone 12 mini with a smaller screen, a basic iPhone 12, and two higher-spec iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max. The proportion of shipments of the four products were 20-25%, 40-45%, 15-20%and 15-20%.
From the perspective of shipment volume, Guo Mingchi predicts that the iPhone 12 series will ship 80 million to 85 million units in the fourth quarter of this year, higher than the 75 million iPhone 11 series.
Although the market questioned the iPhone’s launch of 5G slower than Samsung, Huawei and other competitors, analysts believe that because 5G networks are not yet fully popular, it means that 5G smartphones still have a lot of room for growth.
Ben Stanton, an analyst at research company Canalys, said that only 13%of smartphones sold in the first half of 2020 have 5G capabilities, and only 6%of customers use 5G as The main factor for its next smartphone purchase.
Stanton said:“Apple’s 5G launch is not too late, because 5G-enabled smartphones have not yet been widely adopted. Part of the reason for this is that there is no mobile 5G Killer applications.”
In recent years, Apple has begun to widen the price gap of its products, and through more competitive product pricing, to attract users at all consumer levels.”In the past 12 months, Apple has made serious efforts to make its hardware more price-competitive.” Stanton said,”But Apple’s biggest challenge is to find a way that does not weaken its brand image. Under the circumstances, it is a way to become more competitive.”
Peng Luping, vice president of Canalys mobile business, told Yicai.com reporters:”The impact of the new crown epidemic on consumer confidence is significant. It is declining, so the pricing of the iPhone release is very important.”
According to a small-scale user survey conducted by Canalys, China is the proportion of all consumer groups who are willing to pay higher prices for replacement. The highest country. Research results show that 32%of Chinese consumers said they are willing to pay a higher price for a new model immediately. In the United States and Europe, this proportion is only 10%. India is second only to China, with 17%. Of consumers are willing to buy new machines at higher prices.