2020-10-24

U.S. election repeats 2016? Expert:Mainstream polls have ignored a key voter of the US president

By yqqlm yqqlm

The U.S. Presidential Election enters the final 10 days countdown. The latest polls show that the Democratic presidential candidateBiden leads the U.S. President’s 39%with a 53%approval rate. The advantage has been expanded to 14 percentage points. If it is carried out normally, the suspense is indeed not big. But the Democratic Party not only disagrees, but is also very nervous, because the scene before us is too similar to 4 years ago. It was also in such a great situation that year. Watching Trump walked into the White House. Recently, some experts have reminded that polls have ignored a key voter of the US president—the invisible supporter. This year’s election is really likely to repeat in 2016.

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According to Midland The agency reported on October 23 that although the U.S. president was lagging behind in the polls, the U.S. polling expert Kahali, who successfully predicted his election in 2016, reminded that mainstream polls generally ignored the”invisible fans” of the U.S. president and boldly predicted The US president will still be re-elected. Kahali also believes that in the Electoral College votes in this year’s general election, the US President will get the required 270 votes in advance.

Yesterday, the third and final face-to-face debate before the US election ended. Biden’s performance was still slightly better than that of the US President. Polls can reflect that the advantage expanded to 14%after the debate. With only 10 days left in the final vote, the US president has no more time to maneuver, and with only the last week left in October, the probability of the”October Surprise” hyped by the outside world is getting smaller and smaller.

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Biden not only To gain more support from ordinary voters, even in the Republican Party where the U.S. President belongs, many bigwigs choose to support Biden. This is also a big headache for the U.S. President-not to mention the loss of votes, it also hurts morale.

Previously, because the party’s bigwig, former Secretary of State Powell, said that the US President had lied too much and wanted to vote for Biden, the US President was furious. Next, he uncovered his old truth about”using washing powder as evidence” in the Iraq War. Although this move was happy at the time, it also caused more dissatisfaction among the party leaders and turned against them.

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according to current Regarding the situation, there is really little hope for the normal election of the US president, but don’t forget that there is also a wonderful Electoral College system in the US general election, that is, the number of electoral college members in each state is equal to the number of state members. The total number of members of the regiment is 538, and more than half of them are supported by 270 votes. They are determined to win the election, even if they are at a disadvantage in the popular vote.

In 2016, the then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton led Trump by more than 5 million votes in the national popular vote. The probability of being elected was more than 70%, but Trump However, it was the first to get 270 votes among the members of the Electoral College, thus reverting to the White House. During the Democratic National Convention this year, when Hillary Clinton introduced Biden to the experience of the year, after explaining all this, she regretted that”that’s how I lost.” What the Democratic Party is most worried about right now is not getting the desired number of votes in the Electoral College.

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Indeed, every time you face a media poll, you will Many people said they chose to be neutral. However, the final survey of the 2016 general election showed that voters who chose to be neutral in the past voted for Trump and became his invisible supporters. This year still cannot rule out the large number of such people, and they will become opposition to the general election. The last variable of the vote.

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p style=”text-align:start”>In this way, the U.S. President has the experience of winning the Electoral College’s dominant vote, and there are still many invisible supporters, and most of Biden’s supporters are not I don’t like him, but I don’t want the US president to vote for him for reelection. From the perspective of”iron fans”, Biden is really not as much as the US president. Will the 2016 story really repeat itself? It’s only 10 days, let us wait and see.