2020-10-31

Will the US election be”difficult to give birth”?

By yqqlm yqqlm

November 3, local time, is the polling day for the US general election.

Usually, the election results can be released from late night to early morning the next day.

In 2020, there are two unusual things:Those who choose to vote early may break the record, and the result may be delayed in the future. This will mention a major variable in this year’s general election-mail voting. Please see the front-line report of a reporter from Xinhua News Agency:

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On October 27, a voter participated in an early vote at a polling place in New York, USA. Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Yingshe

Don’t wait, go to sleep

Judging from the history of the U.S. election, mail voting is not a new thing, as early as The American Civil War has appeared. Due to the delay in controlling the new crown epidemic in the United States this year, many voters choose to vote by mail to ensure their safety. The number of mailed votes has increased sharply, accounting for a large proportion of early voting.

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This is the United States Postal Service headquarters building taken in Washington in the United States on August 18. Published by Xinhua News Agency (photo by Shen Ting)

This means that on the polling day of the general election, there are still many votes on the road. Therefore, it is very likely that the votes received that day are not enough to determine the election result. The election results have been delayed.

A number of data indicate that this year’s mailed ballots may far exceed previous years. According to statistics from the”U.S. Election Plan” website that tracks voting in the U.S. general election, as of the evening of October 30, Eastern Time, the number of voters who voted in advance had exceeded 86 million, of which more than 55 million were mailed votes.

The rules for mailing ballots vary from state to state. Some regulations are valid for ballots sent to the counting agency no later than the polling day, while 22 states and Washington, DC require that as long as the postmark of the ballot is sent no later than the polling day, it will be sent to the counting agency within the grace period. Effective.

For the length of this grace period, states also have different regulations. For example, the grace period in Washington State is as long as 20 days, and the grace period in Texas is only 1 day.

The most terrible thing is that some”swing states” that are stalemate in elections and have a greater impact on election results have also given grace periods. For example, the grace period for Pennsylvania is 3 days, Minnesota is 7 days, North Carolina is 9 days, and Ohio is 10 days.

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This is a ballot box taken at a polling place in New York, USA on October 27th. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Ying

At the same time, US election experts said that mailing ballots is more troublesome than on-site voting because of the additional steps of opening envelopes and verifying signatures. In short, the American people who are used to waiting for the presidential election to go to sleep on the night of polling day may be disappointed this year.

However, although there is a certain probability of delay, the possibility of long-term”difficult delivery” in the general election is also relatively low. In the key”battlefield states” that can determine the election results most, if Biden or Trump can form a clear advantage earlier, then the general election The results do not need to wait for all the votes to be announced.

If the result is not released, the consequences will be serious

If the result of the general election produces”procrastination”, what impact will it have on the United States? Experts believe that there may be the following three risks:

First, political risks. Controversies, including mail voting, may cause candidates to refuse to accept the defeat. For example, Trump has repeatedly declared that he only accepts the results of a”fair election” and cannot tolerate large-scale”election manipulation”. This statement was interpreted by the American media as not easy to”give up”. If a candidate refuses to accept the result, the Federal Supreme Court may intervene in the dispute and intensify the controversy of the election.

Second, financial risks. The risk of market turbulence caused by the”difficult delivery” of the general election cannot be ignored. If this dispute is brought to the Federal Supreme Court, it will create more uncertainty, increase market risk aversion, and lead to a dip in the stock market.

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This is a Wall Street sign next to the New York Stock Exchange taken on October 30. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Ying

  1. Social risks. As the epidemic continues to spread in the United States and racial issues are”rising again”, the election year has already severely intensified the”tear” of American public opinion and social conflict. The two parties have been arguing about postal voting for a long time. If the results of the general election are not clear in the short term, it may further deepen the antagonism, thereby adding more destabilizing factors to American society.

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Source:Xinhua International Headlines