2020-11-18

Weilai ideal Xiaopeng hand in answer sheet:Tesla in every question

By yqqlm yqqlm

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Shenrancaijing original

Author | Jin Yunyan, Su Qi

Editor | Wei Jia

Under the bright light, short the first of the institution Citron The paper report allows the outside world to re-examine the company Nio. Ideal and Xiaopeng were also”pushed back to their original shape.”

On November 13, among the top 10 US stocks by turnover, Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng are all on the list. NIO, which rose more than 11%at the beginning of the market, finally closed down 7.74%to $44.56 per share, and was”injured” by mistake. Xiaopeng and Ideal also ended their growth momentum and turned to decline. The declines were 6.13%and 1.83%, respectively, to close at US$41.99/share and US$31.2/share.

In the past October, the stock price of NIO The rise was the most violent, rising by 40.5%, ideal followed by a rise of 20.1%, and Xiaopeng had the smallest gain, 3.8%.

It’s a bit blessed and difficult to share. Before and after Citron’s voice, Xiaopeng and Ideal handed over the first quarterly reports after the US stock market. NIO also released its third quarter earnings report after the market on November 17. On the whole, the income of these three companies is improving. In the past, they were criticized for”selling one and losing one”. Now the gross profit margin has collectively turned positive, but they are still far from profitability.

The reason why Citron is short is that in Tesla Under the price-cutting method, NIO has a worrying sales outlook, and profits are in the foreseeable future, but they have been given an excessively high market value. This is actually a common questioning of these three new car-building forces in the market, and no one can be alone.

An industry insider analyzed Shen Ran, the capital market is carnival, these three companies are currently unable to convince the market with only a few thousand monthly sales, when? When will it be considered a successful landing to get out of the shadow of losses, and the revenue growth and gross profit of the three major books and special books this year are just the first step.

The taste of being targeted by a short-selling institution is uncomfortable, NIO

Span>We have to consider ourselves three times a day. Has the delivery volume increased? Are you free from the curse of loss? How far is it from Tesla?

Since this year, the share price of the new Chinese car-making power Three Musketeers has been rising steadily, which also increased the founder’s net worth. According to the instructions in the prospectus, Peng and Ideal are less than three months and two months away from the six-month lifting period respectively. By then, it is still unknown whether the stock price will fluctuate greatly due to the cash out of the management.

Has the delivery volume increased?

The delivery volume is the last word.

Why Tesla’s stock price can sit on the hunt Eagle Rockets, with an average market value of 250 billion U.S. dollars in the past six months, allows Elon Musk to unlock a new batch of option rewards, relying on actual delivery.

In the first half of this year, Tesla delivered 179,000 New cars, plus 139,000 delivered in the third quarter and sufficient inventory, continue to prepare for the impulse at the end of the year.

On the delivery volume indicator, NIO, Ideal and Xiaopeng together are hard to beat a Tesla. Taking August as an example, the combined monthly sales of NIO, Ideal, and Xiaopeng are 10370 units, Tesla Model 3 sales in China are 11,811. If the monthly sales volume is not enough to explain the problem, the situation so far this year is not very optimistic. NIO, Ideal, and Xiaopeng’s sales from January to September this year were 26,000, 18,000, and 14,000, respectively , Tesla achieved 81,000 vehicles in China.

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Note:Tesla plots sales for the Chinese market/Shenran

But put aside Xueba Tes Pull, it must be admitted that these three new quarters can receive an improvement award, compared to the same period last year, Both Weilai and Xiaopeng’s delivery volume have doubled, and the ideal month-on-month growth rate has been maintained at 30%.

As the company with the highest delivery volume among the new car-making forces in China, Wei Here 12,000 vehicles were delivered this quarter, and the number of deliveries exceeded 10,000 for two consecutive quarters.

Ideal sold 8,660 units. This result is really remarkable for a company that just mass-produced a model at the end of last year.

Xiaopeng showed his best results, selling 8,578 vehicles in the third quarter. The small explosion in sales was due to the fact that the core model P7 delivered on a large scale at the end of June was very popular this quarter, with 6,210 units sold, surpassing G3 and contributing most of the performance.

However, in the small camp of Progress Award, Xiao Peng is the most worrying. Compared with domestic rivals, the comprehensive delivery scale is inferior to NIO, and the dismantling to each quarter is also inferior to the latest delivery Ideal, and foreign rivals have already started cutting prices.

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Drawing/Deep Burning

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Many analysis reports believe that NIO, Ideal, and Xiaopeng Will continue to maintain a high growth trend. However, more than one new energy vehicle practitioner’s judgment was not very optimistic, and highlighted the price reduction factor of Tesla . On October 1st of this year, Tesla directly smashed the price of the Model 3 standard battery life upgraded version subsidy to 249,900 yuan , The impact has already appeared.

In October, the two models of Xiaopeng G3 and P7 sold 3,040 units, a 12.5%​​drop from the previous month. The P7 dropped particularly sharply, and the delivery volume fell from the previous month. 18.2%. The guide prices of these two models are between RMB 150,000 and RMB 200,000, and between RMB 229,000 and RMB 339,000 respectively. The performance and production capacity are all benchmarked.TeslaModel 3. Xiaopeng had put all hopes on P7 in the prospectus before, and the head He Xiaopeng made a speech on the quarterly earnings call. , The fourth quarter delivery target is 10,000 units.

For the price cut madman Tesla, Wen Yuan Wang Chao, the founder of the think tank, predicts that the Model 3 price may drop to less than 200,000 yuan. At that time, Xiaopeng was worried.

Actually, The most terrifying thing is Model Y. The price of the US version is about RMB 486,000. The domestic version is on the official website of China. The price is shown to start at 488,000 yuan, but the price is expected to drop to around 400,000 yuan after it is put into production in China. By then, the most dangerous of the three is NIO, EC6 (pre-subsidy price is 36.8 Between 10,000 and 52.6 million), ES8 (starting at 468,800 yuan before subsidies) may be directly affected.

It seems that the price advantage of Model Y is not obvious, but don’t forget to have Tesla’s brand awareness is in the domestic social media, there are already many TeslaWait, the party expressed its preference for Model Y.

This is the reason why Citron shorted NIO First, it is believed that Model Y put into production in China may damage the recent market sentiment and the order growth momentum of NIO, and cited Germany According to the bank’s analysis, the price of Tesla China-made Model Y will be lowered to between 350,000 and 400,000 yuan The latest research report of Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the starting price of China-made Model Y may be 275,000 yuan.

The fate of Xiaopeng and NIO is to a certain extent Subject to Tesla, in addition to price factors, there is a common pure electric identity. In comparison, Ideal is a bit more resistant. In October, the insurance volume of Ideal ONE reached 3438 units, ranking first in the domestic new energy SUV sales list. Wang Chao analyzed that, compared to NIO ES6, Ideal ONE is positioned slightly higher and priced (after subsidy, the price is 32.8 10,000 yuan) is lower, and it is taking a differentiated route, focusing on a program-increasing power system that is different from that of its peers.

Have you got rid of the loss spell?

For new forces that have been mass-produced for less than three years, losses are still a collective problem.

In this regard, Citron said,”We will not even discuss The profitability of NIO“. In fact, under the background of Tesla continuing to make profits, Nio, Xiaopeng, and Ideal are all at a loss.

NIO total revenue in the third quarter reached 4.53 billion Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.4%, the net loss narrowed 58.5%compared with the same period last year, and 11.0%compared with the previous quarter, but it still exceeded 1 billion yuan.

Ideal’s total revenue in the third quarter was 2.51 billion yuan, an increase of 28.9%from the previous quarter. The growth in revenue still failed to make the ideal profit. The net loss for the quarter was 1.04. Compared with the 75.16 million yuan in the second quarter, there are signs of further expansion. So far, the accumulated loss has reached 4.4 billion yuan. However, according to non-US GAAP, the ideal turnaround was to turn losses into profits, with a net profit of 16 million yuan.

Xpeng’s third-quarter revenue was 1.99 billion yuan, an increase of 342.5%year-on-year, which was higher than market expectations of 1.9 billion yuan, but compared with pre-IPO, losses increased Nearly 8 times. Xiaopeng lost only 146 million yuan in the last quarter, and the net loss in the first quarter after listing was 1.148 billion yuan, plus the previous loss of 5.887 billion yuan from 2018 to the second quarter of this year. So far, the cumulative loss has exceeded 7 billion yuan.

The explanation of the financial report is that some of the equity incentive expenses granted to employees at the IPO are also included. Therefore, Xiaopeng’s external caliber is that the net loss (non-US accounting standards) after excluding the equity incentive expenses is 864 million yuan, which is basically the same as the market’s 845 million yuan. The loss in the same period last year was 751 million yuan. But this number is still more than the combined loss of the first two quarters of this year.

The three brothers who have been criticized for”selling one and losing another” continue to follow NIO’s footsteps, this year, the focus of publicity is on gross profit. The improvement of gross profit margin is the first hurdle for new car-building forces. Now it seems that the three leading companies have passed the test one after another.

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Source/Pexels

NIO in the second quarter of this year, the gross profit will be changed from negative to positive as agreed, and the gross profit rate for this quarter Take it to the next level, increasing to 12.9%. The image of huge losses continues to subvert, but it is slightly inferior to the ideals of latecomers.

Ideal Since the delivery of mass production, the gross profit margin has been positive, and the gap with the opponents all the way, from 8.0%in the first quarter of this year and the second quarter 13.3%increased to 19.8%in the third quarter.

Ideally this quarter, the company’s overall gross profit margin and car sales gross profit margin have reached 19.8%, which is also the most amazing data in this financial report. Tesla’s gross profit margin has been between 16%and 28%in the past five years. Delivery volume in the third quarter of this year It is 139,000, the corresponding overall gross profit margin is 23.5%, and the gross profit margin of the vehicle business is 27.7%. You should know that the ideal delivery is less than 9,000 vehicles, just Tesla fraction.

The Chairman of Ideal AutoLi Xiang also said that this is partly The purchase price of parts and components has increased, and the increase in production is related, and said that this has not reached the ideal ceiling. The delivery target for the next quarter is 11,000-12,000 units. That is to say, the gross profit margin in the next quarter is also confident to maintain at a level. Good level.

Xiaopeng is the second representative of this year who has worked hard to promote a positive gross margin. In the past two years, Xiaopeng’s gross profit margins have been -24.3%and -24.2 respectively.%, the gross profit in the first half of this year was -36.116 million yuan, the gross profit margin was -3.6%, and the overall gross profit margin in the third quarter turned positive to 4.6%. The management explained that the increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to a better product mix, lower material costs and higher manufacturing efficiency.

For the new automakers, a positive gross profit margin means that other expenses such as promotion and management are eliminated. The quagmire of”Selling a car for micro profit.”

Automotive analyst Jia Xinliang once told Shenran,”Today, the cost of producing ten cars a year is different from the cost of producing 100,000 cars a year. Similarly, the larger the scale, the lower the cost, and at a certain scale, there will be opportunities for profit.”To produce more cars and sell more cars is the best way for the three companies to reduce costs and increase profitability after listing. It can also be said Is the only way out.

Of course, none of these three companies will stop chasing sales and profitability, but, looks confidentcontentment strong>In fact, each has its own worries.

Xiaopeng puts hope on the P7, which is the target of Model 3, Weilai puts its hopes in the fourth quarter on the EC6, the third car delivered at the end of September this year, and is expected to hit a new high in the next quarter. However, they have to face the pressure of lowering prices of Tesla, which will increase profitability.

Ideal cannot sit back and relax. It has to pay for the recall of tens of thousands of ideal ONEs. At the same time, according to its plan, a new extended-range large SUV will be launched in 2022. Said that the ideal ONE must survive the more than one year window period without any problems.

The lifting period is approaching, and He Xiaopeng is the head of the three families

Since the beginning of this year, the stock price of the new Chinese car-making power Three Musketeers has been rising steadily, which has also raised the founder’s net worth. According to the instructions in the prospectus, there are less than three months and two months left between Xiaopeng and Ideal’s half-year lifting period, respectively. By then, whether the stock price will fluctuate greatly due to the cash out of the management? Unknown.

Among the three, the earliest listed is NIO . On September 13, 2018, NIO was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The next day, the stock price rose by $5, an increase of 75.76.%, reported closing at 11.6 US dollars, with a market value of 11.9 billion US dollars.

Today, the market value of NIO has reached 63.34 billion The US dollar has increased 4.3 times from the beginning of the listing. In the past six months, the highest price was 54.20 US dollars and the lowest was 1.73 US dollars. The cumulative increase since October has reached 119%.

Its prospectus stated that about 17 executives including Li Bin collectively own 21.1%of the shares, of which Li Bin holds 17.2%. NIO North America CEO Padmasree Warrior and Ideal Auto founder Li Xiang hold 1.4%and 1.7%, respectively. They are the only executives except Li Bin. Of shareholders accounted for more than 1%. In addition, Tencent holds 15.2%of the shares and Hillhouse Capital holds 7.5%, which are the same as Li Bin’s actual affiliate, Founder vehicles The three core corporate shareholders are tied together.

In the past two years, the shareholder structure of NIO has taken place Many changes. According to Tiger Securities data, Li Bin currently holds 10.94%of shares, and Tencent holds 10.23%of shares. Baillie Gifford & Co holds 8.39%. At the same time, Hillhouse Capital held 3.95%of its shares, which was significantly reduced. In the third quarter of this year, Hillhouse bought 2.412 million shares of NIO, holding a market value of US$51.177 million.

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Source/Tiger Securities

On July 30 this year, Ideal was listed on NASDAQ with an issue price of US$11.5 and a market value of US$15.1 billion. Since its listing, the ideal stock price has reached US$40.81, and the cumulative increase since October has reached 111%. The current market value is US$29.31 billion.

The prospectus shows that after the IPO, ideal founder, chairman and CEO Li Xiang holds 21%of the shares and 72.7%of the voting rights; Wang Xing Individual holdings are 7.9%, with 2.7%of voting rights. Inspired Elite under Meituan holds 16.1%of shares and owns 5.6%of the With voting rights, Meituan has become the ideal largest shareholder.

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The company stated in a regulatory document that Hillhouse Capital agreed to invest US$300 million in it as part of the IPO. According to media reports, as of September 30, Hillhouse had newly purchased 1.671 million shares of Ideal Motor, valued at 29.057,000 US dollars.

Among the three, the latest listing is Xiaopeng Motors . Xiaopeng Motors was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange on the evening of August 27, Beijing time, with the stock code XPEV, and the final price per share was $15.

On the first trading day, Xiaopeng Motors opened at US$23, and then began to rise all the way, eventually closing at US$21.22, with a market value of more than US$17 billion. At present, the share price of Xiaopeng Motors has reached US$51.27. Since October, the cumulative increase has reached 134%, with a market value of US$29.79 billion.

As can be seen from the prospectus, Xiaopeng Motors has a large number of shareholders. Xiaopeng Motor’s Chairman and CEO He Xiaopeng is the company’s largest shareholder, holding 31.6%of the shares, plus the shares held by the company’s founder and president Xia Heng, vice chairman and president Gu Hongdi, and senior vice president He Tao. The management of Peng Auto holds a total of 40.9%of the shares. Ali is the largest external shareholder, holding 14.4%. Other major shareholders include IDG, Xiaomi, GGV Jiyuan Capital, and Morningside Capital.

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Source/Tiger Securities

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According to data, Hillhouse bought 917,000 shares of Xiaopeng in the third quarter, holding a market value of 18.395 million US dollars.

From the current market value alone, Li Bin’s net worth is 6.929 billion U.S. dollars, Li Xiang’s net worth is 6.155 billion U.S. dollars, and He Xiaopeng’s net worth is 74.80. One hundred million U.S. dollars.

A secondary market analyst told Shenran that the executives of listed companies are very”poor” and their income is large Part of them are based on option stocks.”If you don’t cash in, should you drink Northwestern Wind?” But he also said that the impact of the reduction in US stocks is not great, but in A shares, there will generally be selling.

Wang Chao believes that if a company’s management and shareholders sell their shares in large quantities after the lifting of the embargo period, it will of course have a negative impact on the company. Generally speaking, if executives who are more confident in the company have more information, apart from doing some reductions to improve their lives, they will basically retain stocks. Most of the actions should be in line with the development of the company. corresponding.

At the same time, he said that the three Musketeers of new Internet vehicles cannot learn from traditional Internet companies and generally cash out, because Ali, Tencent, Meituan and other giants have developed for many years, and their plates are large enough. The behavior of individual executives will not have much impact on the company, but the current market value of new car-making forces Without more than US$100 billion, senior executives have relatively greater voting rights and voice. Large-scale cashing will shake market confidence and reduce market trust in the company.

*The title map comes from NIO, ideal, Xiaopeng’s official website.