Harden Quartet Trading Rating:Rockets A-, Nets Only D
The Rockets, the Nets, the Pacers, and the Cavaliers reached a four-way transaction. ESPN data expert Kevin Pelton rated the transaction.
Specific trading plan:
The Nets get:James Harden, a second-round pick
The Rockets get:Victor Oladipo, Dante Exam, Rodionce Kurut, 4 first-round picks and 4 first-round picks swap rights
The Cavaliers get:Jarrett-Allen and Taurian-Prince
< p>The Pacers get:Caris Level and a second-round pick
It’s hard not to take this trade off with Kyrie Irving in the past week Connect. With Irving and healthy Kevin Durant, Harden compatibility was questionable. If the Nets are not sure when Owen will return to the team, then another player is needed, especially in Spencer Ding After Widi reimbursed.
The Nets have Levere, who averaged 26.5 points in the 4 games absent from Irving, including the loss to the Grizzlies scored 43 points in the game. But Lever is a productive and inefficient scorer. Since entering the NBA, his true shooting percentage has never been higher than 52.5%, and the league’s average has never been lower than 55.6%.
In terms of high productivity and efficiency, Harden is unmatched. NBA has 36 seasons in the history of the NBA where players dominate 35%of the team’s rounds (rounds in which the player takes a shot, free throw, or error), of which The three seasons with the highest true shooting percentage belonged to Harden (the past three years).
But Harden did not play the same level in the 2020-21 season:Since the opening game with 44 points and 17 assists, Harden has averaged 17.4 points and 26%three-point shooting in the past five games. This is the longest scoring average of less than 20 points in his Rockets career. What’s more troublesome is that Harden only had 19 free throws during this period, which is also a record low for the Rockets’ career in 5 consecutive games.
The Nets clearly believe that Harden’s downturn is due to the short-term impact of an ankle injury and a desire to trade. Based on Harden’s resume, such a speculation is reasonable.
The Nets believe that getting Harden will make them the biggest favorites in the East, even without Irving. But I doubt it. Nash likes to let Owen and Durant play together, and Le Vere brings the convergence stage. Now the Nets can guarantee one of the strongest scorers in history to lead the team in 48 minutes.
Although Harden has worked with a former MVP or future Hall of Fame partner, he has never worked with a player like Durant in his prime. Harden had the problem of lack of physical strength in the playoffs before, and now the Nets can keep him physical, even if his physical strength collapses, there is KD output.
The biggest problem for the Nets is defense. The Nets are now 11th in defensive efficiency in the league, but this is based on the premise that opponents are not shooting well. According to the shooting quality tracking data (combined with the player’s shooting position, type and defender distance to get the average expected shooting rate), the Nets opponents have a good shooting opportunity. The reason why Nets opponents have the fifth-lowest effective field goal percentage in the league is mainly because they only make 36%of two-pointers outside the paint, which is the third-lowest (with a lot of luck).
The Nets also sent Alan away. He interfered with opponents’ shots at the basket much more frequently than Jiaodan span>, although his protective rebounding is not as good as the latter. Jordan only played more than 20 minutes this season. He was DNP directly in the previous game. He is now the only healthy traditional center. The Nets may also play small balls and reuse Jeff Green. After the Nets trade, there are still 3 places vacated, obviously will pursue the center.
I can understand the urgency of the Nets’ championship. Durant is in excellent form after injury, but he is also 32 years old. Competition in the East has never been easier. But the Nets’ defense is not enough to guarantee them out of the East, and the transaction price is too high.
Comparing the Harden deal to the Nets’ gaining Kevin Garnett and Paul-Pierce transaction is understandable , But Harden is far closer to the top than Garnett and Pierce, and the East does not have the Big Three of the Heat. The Nets know the price of sending so many draft picks at once.
It is difficult to predict the future of the Nets:Harden can enter the free market in 2022, and can also execute 47.4 million options. You don’t know which is worse:Harden leaves the team or gives him a salary cap 35%maximum salary.
Germany Marcus Cousins and Wall are in better-than-expected form, Christian Wood can both play the pick and roll and develop opportunities on his own . But if Harden doesn’t buy it, the Rockets have no chance.
Thunder sent Paul George to the Clippers, which was a good example of the league superstar deal:the Thunder got 4 unprotected first-round picks, one protected, and two unprotected first-round picks. Swap rights. The Rockets got 4 unprotected first-round picks and 4 unprotected first-round picks to swap.
In the next few years, the Rockets will use these picks to fill the hole in the Westbrook trade, but they can still add young blood to the team. Perhaps the Rockets are not optimistic about Harden’s performance at around 35 years old.
Now the Rockets can evaluate Oladipo. Oladipo has returned to his state this season after suffering a serious injury. But Oladipo’s finishing ability is still worrying:He shot only 54%from 3 feet from the basket. When he was selected to the All-NBA third team in the 2017-18 season, he shot 69%from the basket, a career high. The Rockets shouldn’t expect Oladipo to return to that level. I prefer Le Vere.
Even if Harden slips stronger than Oladipo, the Rockets can only count on better chemistry. If before the trade deadline, the Rockets feel unlikely to enter the playoffs, they have to make a decision:Oladipo and Tucker will become free agents during the offseason, and they are all attractive to championship teams.
If Oladipo leaves, the Rockets will turn from a luxury tax team into a cap space team. They exchanged Harden’s 44.3 million salary for a Kuruz, and the contract for the 2021-22 season is still a team option worth 1.9 million. As long as Wall is still (with the contract until the end of the 2022-23 season), the Rockets will not be able to make a big splash in the free market. But if the Rockets are determined to rebuild, they can eat garbage contracts in exchange for more picks.
This is certainly not the Rockets’ A plan. They hope Harden can lead them back to the Western Conference Finals, but the Rockets are still on the right path.
The future of Oladipo makes the Pacers tricky:if he plays well, he will be hot in the free market, and the Pacers can’t keep it. If the play is not good, the Pacers should consider renewing the contract at a low price or find alternatives.
Lever’s contract averages 17.5 million, just entering the first year. He is a qualified candidate for the Pacers’ starting shooting guard. Levere and Brogdon should be compatible. It is expected that Lever will play more pick-and-rolls to share Brogdon’s pressure because the latter is better off the ball, and Lever’s Passing has also improved, averaging a career-high 6 times per game this season.
What determines the value of Le Vere is still health. Only one season in his four-year NBA career has exceeded 57 games and never exceeded 71 games. Whether Lever’s three-pointer can improve is also the key to his efficiency improvement and playing next to Brogdon.
And Oladipo’s 4.8 million salary bonus in exchange for Lever also allows the Pacers Get out of the luxury tax list and have the ability to operate before the transaction deadline.
Rockets have With Wood, not interested in keeping Allen, sending him to the Cavaliers for a first-round pick in 2022 can also reduce salary pressure.
The addition of Allen will make Cavaliers coach JB Bickerstaff even more difficult. The Cavaliers are too crowded inside. Now Shen Zhuang and Mckey are playing centers, but they will all become free agents in the offseason. Is the future center of the Cavaliers.
Compared to Zhuang Shen, Allen is more suitable for the Cavaliers backcourt Darius Garland and Collins Sexton. His pick-and-rolls are suitable for two people. In the 2018-19 season, only Rudy Gobert participated in more pick-and-roll screens than Allen. Allen’s pick-and-roll efficiency is also better than Zhuang Shen.
Defensively, Allen’s hoop guard can well support the Cavaliers’ mini backcourt. Although the Cavaliers opponents only have a bad 55%shooting percentage in the reasonable collision zone, this is an extraordinary performance. Zhuang Shen’s career protection level is not good, and Allen is stronger. Kevin Love can help Allen protect the rebound.
The problem is that the Cavaliers gave up the first-round pick and increased their salary. Allen will be a restricted free agent this summer, and the Cavaliers certainly don’t want to wait for other teams to bid. Now Allen’s annual salary is 3.9 million yuan, but his market price is very high. With Allen’s salary position and Prince’s 13 million salary for the 2021-22 season, the Cavaliers are more likely to exceed the salary cap during the offseason and cannot use the salary space.
Although the Cavaliers have a strong start, they are still expected to be a lottery team. The renewal of Allen will lock the Cavaliers’ future core lineup, and there is not much room for operation. The next step depends on how much progress Garland, Okuro and Sexton can make.