2021-04-08

March CPI announced today may change from negative to positive year-on-year

By yqqlm yqqlm

China News Service Client Beijing, April 9th ​​(Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Many institutions predict that, affected by rising tail-raising factors, the CPI in March may turn from negative to positive year-on-year, but food prices will drop significantly month-on-month or drag down the rebound.

March CPI announced today may change from negative to positive year-on-year

CPI rise and fall trends Figure. From the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI in March may turn positive year-on-year or slightly positive

Affected by the high base in the same period in 2020, the price of “Second Brother” fell sharply year-on-year in February, driving the CPI year-on-year in February A decrease of 0.2%. How will the CPI change in March?

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from March 22 to 28, the wholesale price of pork was 35.72 yuan per kilogram, compared with 38.59 yuan per kilo from February 22 to 28, a drop of 7.44%. The average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables also fell sharply.

“Food prices have fallen since the beginning of March, in line with the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations in previous years. The increase in the number of live pigs and the volume of slaughter has promoted the decline in pork prices. However, due to the significant decline in food prices in the same period of the previous year, the year-on-year change was not consistent. Not obvious.” said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

“The tail-lifting factor in March was -0.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from February.” Liu Xuezhi said that due to the rise of the tail-lifting factor, the CPI will turn from negative to positive year-on-year, and the increase is expected to be 0.4% to Between 0.6%, the median value is 0.5%.

“CPI growth in March will rebound to around 0.2% year-on-year.” Hua Changchun, chief economist of the Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, predicts that most food items will fall from the previous month after the Spring Festival, dragging down the rebound.

According to statistics from Flush iFinD, 22 institutions have an average forecast value of 0.29% for the March CPI year-on-year increase. If the above average forecast is fulfilled, the March CPI may turn positive again year-on-year.

March CPI announced today may change from negative to positive year-on-year(1)

A supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing Pork sold inside. Photo by Xie Yiguan, reporter from Chinanews.com

What is the future trend of CPI year-on-year?

“On April 6, the average price of ternary listings outside the country was 23.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8.14% from March 30.” Zhuo Chuang Information monitors.

“As the price of live pigs has been falling, the psychological defense line of the farmers is on the verge of collapse, and the concentrated production of big pigs has hit the market, resulting in a periodical oversupply on the supply side.” At the same time, Tomb-sweeping Festival is about consumption. Side benefits are limited, slaughter companies are fighting each other on pork price wars, low price competition is fierce, and the shrinking gross margin leads to operating losses. The two-way supply and demand are negative, and the price of pigs is difficult to stop falling. ”

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from April 1st to 7th, the average price of pork, vegetables and fruits in the national agricultural product wholesale market all dropped.

The price of pork and other foods If it continues to fall, will it lead to a year-on-year fall in CPI in the future?

“Although production has returned to normal and supply is sufficient, food prices are falling, but it is affected by the increase in global commodity prices that push up the prices of some consumer goods. 4 The month-on-year CPI may have expanded year-on-year or compared with March, which also led to a higher CPI in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. “Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics of Peking University, told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

On March 15th, Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference that in the future, from the perspective of food prices, food and The supply of major agricultural products is sufficient, and prices are expected to remain relatively stable; from the perspective of industrial consumer goods and service prices, industrial consumer goods do not have the basis for a sharp increase, and the service industry prices are expected to remain stable; from the perspective of tail-end factors and new price increases, the whole year The tail-lifting factor is only -0.1%, which is relatively weak compared to previous years. Overall, the annual CPI is expected to remain within a reasonable and moderate range. (End)