Research: Achieving high coverage of the new crown vaccine in summer can significantly reduce the number of cases and costs
It is reported that the research team has developed a set of Computer simulation model of the spread of the new coronavirus in the United States and the country. By using this model, the team can simulate different proportions of people vaccinated with different types of COVID-19 vaccines. Like real people, these virtual people may also be infected with the virus and develop different symptoms over time, and then go to the clinic, emergency room or hospital according to the severity of the symptoms. The model, in turn, can generate related costs, which in turn can track various medical costs and productivity losses.
This study shows that increasing the vaccination rate from 30% to 40% can reduce 24.3 million cases and US$33.1 billion in direct medical expenses and productivity losses. A coverage rate of 50% to 70% can reduce 9.5 million cases and US$10.8 billion in direct medical expenses and lost productivity.
In fact, even a relatively small increase in vaccine coverage can prevent thousands of cases and save lives and reduce costs by hundreds of millions of dollars.
In addition, the study also emphasized the importance of reaching a higher level of coverage as soon as possible. If the speed of vaccination can be accelerated, for example, by July 2021 instead of October 2021 to achieve 50% coverage, then an additional 5.8 million cases, 215.9 million hospitalizations, 26,370 deaths, and US$3.5 billion in direct medical care can be reduced. Costs and a lost productivity of $4.3 billion.
The results show that it is particularly important for as many people as possible to be fully vaccinated before the beginning of winter. The model incorporates the changes in virus transmission that will occur with the seasons in 2020-when the virus surges in the winter months-and predicts what may happen in 2021.
Sarah Bartsch, the lead author of the research paper, PhICOR project director and Master of Public Health, pointed out: “The results of this research can allow decision makers, community leaders and other decision makers to understand how much money can be invested in those who are more difficult The vaccinated people are vaccinated. Such investment may eventually pay for itself. For example, the potential cost savings exceeds the Biden administration’s $1.5 billion in community and media campaigns. Our results show that as long as the total vaccination rate is increased by 1 % Can cover the cost of this effort.”
The senior author of this study, the executive director of PHICOR, and the SPH professor of the City University of New York, Bruce Y Lee, said: “To achieve a higher level of vaccine coverage The longer it takes to reach the herd immunity threshold, the more the virus can spread. It is especially important to reach a higher level of coverage before late autumn to prevent another winter surge.”
In addition, the Research also shows that increasing vaccination coverage is more valuable than using more effective vaccines. For example, compared with the use of 90% effective vaccines to achieve a coverage rate of 50% over the same period, the use of 70% effective vaccines to achieve 70% coverage can reduce 2.1 million cases and US$5.5 billion in medical costs and productivity losses. This shows that it is valuable to use all existing new crown vaccines and get more people vaccinated as soon as possible. In addition, as more infectious variants spread, this may also help reduce the effectiveness of the existing new crown vaccine, which helps to resolve concerns about continuing to use the existing vaccine or waiting for an updated version.