2021-05-20

“World Pharmacy” has become “World Ward”. Will the epidemic in India affect the overall situation of the global economy?

By yqqlm yqqlm

China News Service, Beijing, May 20th (Liu Liang) Statistics show that in the past month, almost all newly diagnosed cases of new coronary pneumonia in India have been more than 300,000 in a single day. The continuous surge in epidemic data has also made India the second country in the world to have accumulated more than 25 million confirmed cases after the United States.

At the moment, the continuous deterioration of the epidemic situation in India has made the global anti-epidemic situation increasingly stalemate, and its potential “spillover effect” has also raised concerns. Under the general “bullish” tone of the world’s major economies this year, will India, which is caught in the “storm” of the epidemic, affect the overall recovery of the global economy?

Since this year, with the accelerated promotion of new crown vaccination in major economies around the world, government support policies have continued to be introduced, and the global economic recovery has been better than expected. The forecast report recently issued by an international authoritative organization shows that the economic growth expectations of the world’s major economies in the second quarter have been revised upwards to varying degrees.

“World Pharmacy” has become “World Ward”. Will the epidemic in India affect the overall situation of the global economy?

In an interview with a reporter from China News Agency, Qiu Yonghui, chief expert of the China South Asian Research Center of Sichuan University, pointed out that the impact of the Indian epidemic on the global economy still needs to be evaluated based on the duration of the epidemic and the extent of its impact on India’s economy and trade.

According to the World Bank’s 2019 Global GDP Ranking, India is the fifth largest economy in the world, after the United States, China, Japan and Germany. At the same time, India is also a major pharmaceutical country in the world, ranking third in the world in terms of the total pharmaceutical industry, accounting for 3.5% of the total global exports of drugs, and accounting for approximately 20% of the global exports of generic drugs.

In terms of total GDP, India’s economy accounts for approximately 3.2% of the world’s total economy. In this regard, some economic experts assessed that its impact on the world economy is very small. “But if you look at it from another angle, in the past few years, the Indian economy has grown rapidly as a whole, and it has even been called the’growth engine’ of the world economy. If India becomes a’development drag’ of the world economy, this in itself will be a heavy burden on the global economy. Hit.” Qiu Yonghui said.

She further pointed out that, similarly, India’s foreign trade only accounts for about 2% of the world’s total trade. In theory, it should have a limited impact on global trade. However, in reality, due to India’s vaccine production It has strong capabilities and has taken orders to export vaccines to many countries. “During the critical period of global anti-epidemic, India has changed from a’world pharmacy’ to a’world ward’, and its impact cannot be evaluated from the perspective of trade alone.”

According to reports, the Serum Institute of India is the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer and the largest supplier of the “New Coronary Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan” led by the World Health Organization. In the face of the current epidemic that is almost “out of control”, India’s current production capacity of 70 million doses of vaccines per month is already a drop in the bucket. This may affect the number of vaccine exports and exacerbate the global shortage of vaccine supply.

Not only that, at present, the impact of the rapid spread of the epidemic in India on the economy is gradually emerging. On the one hand, India’s continued overweight prevention and control measures have brought chain blows to the industry. Due to the worsening of the epidemic situation, some countries and regions have implemented stricter anti-epidemic regulations on ships and seafarers involved in Indian routes, which has put many shipping companies under pressure to adjust their personnel.

According to data from the International Chamber of Shipping, there are approximately 1.6 million seafarers serving ocean-going ships worldwide, and about 15% of them are Indians. Given that shipping carries about 80% of global trade in goods, the impact of the Indian epidemic on maritime trade should not be underestimated.

“World Pharmacy” has become “World Ward”. Will the epidemic in India affect the overall situation of the global economy?(1)

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p > On May 4, local time, in New Delhi, India, people wearing protective masks at the vaccination center waiting to be vaccinated with India’s self-produced COVISHIELD new crown vaccine.

On the other hand, the worsening of the epidemic in India has also affected the operations of many multinational companies. Many well-known European and American financial service institutions and technology giants have established back-office operations in India, employing millions of Indians. Now, in the face of the spread of the epidemic, the above-mentioned companies are also urgently supporting local employees in India to ensure the normal operation of the back office.

In contrast, India itself, its domestic economy is not optimistic. Although most of the international agencies maintained their optimistic forecasts for the Indian economy at the beginning of the year, under the severe epidemic, some agencies have lowered India’s GDP growth forecast for this year and cited factors such as the country’s escalating health burden and unstable vaccination rates.

“If the Indian epidemic continues and Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries take over related production chains and distribution channels, India’s economic recovery will face a more difficult situation.” Qiu Yonghui said.

Talking about the reasons for the worsening of the epidemic in India, Qiu Yonghui analyzed and pointed out that political gatherings and religious festivals were the superficial causes of the epidemic, and the deep-seated cause was the absolute poverty in India. , Comprehensive medical conditions are poor and the organization and governance capabilities of a modern country are lacking.

“Unfortunately, these are impossible to solve in a short time. Therefore, the Indian epidemic will continue for a long time, and in the process, it will increase the risk of more virus mutations. The impact of the global fight against the epidemic will also be long-term.” Qiu Yonghui said.

Currently, the epidemic in India is still spreading. The data shows that although the number of new diagnoses in India in a single day has dropped slightly in the past two days, which seems to have brought a glimmer of hope for the improvement of the epidemic, experts from the World Health Organization quickly poured cold water on this and warned that the Indian epidemic is still continuing to ferment. And due to the lack of local virus detection capabilities and other reasons, the actual situation may become worse. (End)