2021-06-11

CPI of 31 provinces announced in May: 16 areas are lower than the whole country, and Guizhou has the least increase

By yqqlm yqqlm

China-Singapore Jingwei Client, June 12 (Xiong Siyi) The National Bureau of Statistics released May CPI data for 31 provinces on the 11th. The May CPI increase in 16 provinces was lower than that of the whole country, and the lowest increase in Guizhou was only 0.4%.

In 16 provinces, the growth rate was lower than that of the whole country.

In May 2021, the national consumer prices rose by 1.3% year-on-year. Among them, food prices rose by 0.3%, and non-food prices rose by 1.6%. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in May, all regions and departments continued to do a good job in ensuring supply and price stability, and consumer prices were generally stable.

CPI of 31 provinces announced in May: 16 areas are lower than the whole country, and Guizhou has the least increase

By province, Guizhou In 16 provinces, Hainan, Yunnan, Jilin, Hunan, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Gansu, Beijing, Shanxi, Shanghai, Fujian, and Chongqing, the CPI increase in May was lower than the national average. Among them, Guizhou’s CPI rose the lowest in May, only 0.4%.

Hebei and Guangxi provinces’ CPI increase in May was the same as that of the whole country, both at 1.3%. In the 13 provinces of Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Tibet, Henan, Tianjin, Qinghai, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang, the CPI increase in May was slightly higher than the national average.

Shen Xinfeng, the chief macro analyst of Northeast Securities, pointed out that from the food item, pork became the main drag on the CPI in May. There are two main reasons for such a sharp drop in pork prices: 1. Overall, pork production capacity is still recovering; 2. Due to the decline in the pork market in March, a large number of retail investors resisted the price pressure to carry out secondary fattening, which led to the period from May to July. It has become the peak period for large-weight pigs to slaughter, and the supply of pork weight is abundant.

Among the non-food items, the transportation and communications industries became the main driving factors for the CPI in May. The reasons behind it mainly came from two aspects: 1. The influence of the ultra-low base number, the international oil price remained at nearly 3% in May this year. Year high, but last May oil prices were at a relatively low level in history. 2. In May of this year, the epidemic prevention and control situation was well superimposed with the influence of the May Day holiday, and residents’ travel increased significantly.

For the later trend of pig prices, Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, etc. predicts that this round of super pig cycle will end in May and June 2022, and pig prices will continue to bottom out, but will There was a seasonal rebound in the peak consumption season. Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, said that considering the rapid restoration of live pig production capacity and the lower-than-expected impact of the mutant strain of African swine fever, it is difficult to judge that pork prices will rebound significantly in the future.

CPI of 31 provinces announced in May: 16 areas are lower than the whole country, and Guizhou has the least increase(1)

June 10th, Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that the short-term rise in global inflation this year has become a reality, but there are huge differences on whether inflation can continue in the long-term. During the epidemic last year, my country persisted in implementing normal monetary policies and domestic aggregate demand was relatively stable, which is conducive to maintaining overall price stability. Yi Gang said that considering all factors, my country’s CPI trend for the whole year of this year was low and then high, and the average growth rate is expected to be less than 2%.

Huatai solid income Zhang Jiqiang’s team also believes that the dislocation of the economic cycle and the pig cycle has caused little pressure on the CPI during the year. The fourth quarter or the high point of the year can be controlled within 3%. The core CPI may rise month by month as service consumption resumes and manufacturing costs are passed on during the year, and is expected to rise to close to 2% at the end of the year.

China Securities Investment and Investment analyst Huang Wentao, etc. said that the overall year-on-year resident consumer price has shown a moderate increase in the year-on-year judgment. The CPI reached its first high in May in terms of year-on-year rhythm, and fell in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Go up again.

As for the transmission of PPI to CPI, Qin Tai, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, pointed out that the peak of PPI this year, but it does not mean that the strongest transmission to CPI has passed, and CPI durable consumer goods will remain in the next few months. It will endure considerable cost-conducting inflationary pressures and cast a shadow over the intensity of demand for durable consumer goods in the second half of the year. It is worthy of vigilance. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

All rights reserved by Zhongxin Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use it in other ways.