Several major signals, the property market has undergone a fundamental reversal
China’s property market, exclusive All kinds of dissatisfaction have used a bull market that lasted for decades to keep various air forces and other parties on the ground and rub them repeatedly. The reasons for the formation of this situation are very complicated. There are historical reasons that cannot be replicated, and it is also a derivative result of the urbanization process, and it is a by-product of China’s rapid economic development.
However, some recent signals that have appeared recently are almost impossible Things are gradually changing. The fundamental logic of the big bull market in our property market may be reversal.
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Land financial The foundation is loosening.
There was a big news recently that land sale income was transferred to the taxation department.
As soon as this news came out, it was like a thunder in the real estate circle. All kinds of analysis are available. Let me first explain. Some people say that this is nationalization, which is not correct, or it is not completely correct.
The specific method is, The country helps collect first, but the money is not Back to the top, In the city if you want to use this money, you take it from the inside again, and I didn’t say not for you. This is probably the way. Let’s use an analogy. In the past, my husband paid his salary, and the husband collected it for his own use. Now, the wife collects it for you first. Anyway, it’s a family. Isn’t it the same for which card you receive?
What is the underlying logic of this policy?
We all know that House prices, the long-term look at the population, the short-term actually look at the Credit and land sales.
In many cities, housing prices fluctuate sharply, often because of credit and land sales. For example, in the past two yearsChongqing.
I’ve analyzed it in my previous article. The above intentions for housing prices are very obvious, that is, they cannot fluctuate drastically. Great rises and falls will not work. It is best to maintain the same growth rate as GDP, a stable one. The continuous and slow upward slash, this is the most desired result of official. If you have the opportunity to read Huang Qifan’s article, he has said this point more than once. Housing prices have doubled in about ten to fifteen years. Such a diagonal line can stimulate the economy without causing risks. It is the optimal solution.
But in reality, the housing prices in some cities do not follow the rules. Of course, there are many reasons, and the lack of military ethics in selling land is also a very important factor.
This time I received the national level, not that the country wants the money, but that it wants to control the pace of housing prices as a whole.
In the past, the city had the final say on how much land was sold and how much money it sold. But now it is equivalent to overall overall planning, with more supply points when it rises, and fewer supply points when it falls, so as to maintain the overall stability of housing prices.
The official attitude to the property market happened reverse.
In recent years, the developer’s Life is really difficult. In the past, Evergrande’s affairs spread to great enthusiasm, and then there was Binjiang CEO Qi Jinxing” and strive to achieve 1%-2%Of the net profit level”. Developers with deep pockets will actually fall into this field.
HengdaTense rumors of the capital chain Whether true or false, this type of The fact that rumors can be posted in the market at least shows that Evergrande is under a lot of pressure. It is estimated that Boss Xu is definitely not in the brisk state of Chunfeng.
The reason is that the official attitude towards the real estate market has reversed. The specific method is to let”price limit+self-holding” be the standard when the land is auctioned. Match, Beijing so, Chongqing, Wuxi, Hangzhou is also the same. Which other cities will do the same in the future? There is a list of 22 cities before. See my analysis in this article for details. [Heavyweight] This news will trigger major changes in the property market
This new model, generally speaking, is to buy goods for one dollar before, you can set the price yourself, you can sell it for two to three dollars, now it’s in stock At the time, it is clearly stipulated that you can buy goods, and you can only sell one yuan for one yuan. What is the concept of one yuan for three? Basically not making money, with a net profit of 1-2 points, it is really better to buy financial management.
Doing business on the edge of this kind of profit and loss, if you don’t pay attention, you will get into a tight capital chain.
Furthermore, we went further. In fact, the income from land supply is taxed, and the centralized land supply in large and medium-sized cities +”price limit and self-sufficiency” is actually to strengthen the overall planning of land. Land sales in the future, The actual operation is in the local area, but the management is on the top. The top-level design is used to solve the chaos of disorderly land supply.
Big cities where housing prices will rise, profit margins are severely restricted, and no money can be made at all, and small cities where housing prices will not rise may sink into a quagmire as soon as you enter. Following this development, the road of magnificent developers has basically come to an end.
The developer’s life is not easy, this situation It’s not surprising to appear, but the official response is strange.
In 2014, the developer’s life was not easy, financial pressure was high, and bosses were running away from time to time. However, a destocking policy was quickly introduced at that time, and the 13th Five-Year Plan Here it is clear that the encouraging attitude towards buying”stocked commercial housing” at that time.
Since the housing reform in 1998, real estate has been established as a pillar industry in China Since then, our country’s economy has developed a strong dependence on real estate.
So whenever there is a crisis in the real estate industry, in order to preserve the economy, it has to be rescued. This is what many people call”real estate kidnapped the economy.”
But in recent years, the volume of the new economy represented by the Internet has gradually expanded, and many other physical industries have also grown rapidly, including some giants, such as lithium batteries, mineral water, domestic mobile phones, domestic electric Car and so on.
In other words, our economy’s dependence on real estate is decreasing.
As long as real estate no longer kidnaps the economy, then the official attitude towards real estate will be more confident. Therefore, even if the giants such as Evergrande are under certain pressure, our policy can still maintain the strength, and there is no sign of wavering.
Once this trend takes shape, the pattern of the property market will be rewritten.
From now on, buying a house stop thinking about getting rich.
If the country unswervingly follows this line of thinking, the development of housing prices is likely to be similar to financial management, and it is unlikely that there will be skyrocketing. High-leverage and high-interest real estate speculators, advise you to stop as soon as possible. In the case of lowering, Bank tightening will kill you.
Investment is more important than second-hand.
According to the idea of limiting prices, there are many real estates will be limited in price and exist Space for arbitrage. For example, in the land auction in Beijing, some plots of land will be opened at a much lower second-hand price in the future. If they can be bought, it is a very good investment opportunity.
In the future, buying a house will pay more attention to the inner strength of the city.
In the past, many cities have made great efforts to develop new districts. As the new districts rise, housing prices rise . Now that the land sales rhythm is under unified control by the state, you have to spread the pie in the new district, not to mention that you can’t spread it, even if it is spread, it will be for nothing. The specific amount of money that is spread needs to be planned.
The trade fair will decrease, and the long-term holding will increase.
Under the policy direction of the country, there is no room for short-term hype. Buying a house will be considered in a cycle of five to ten years. When buying a house, look at the urban population, economic structure, industrial space, and urban planning. That is, from short-term speculation of retail investors to value investment.