2021-10-20

House prices have really fallen! New houses fell for the first time in six years. Can you buy a house now?

By yqqlm yqqlm

Beijing, October 20 (Zuo Yukun) house prices have really fallen

“the sales price of commercial housing decreased steadily in September.” on October 20, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in September 2021, the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a slight downward trend month on month, and the year-on-year increase continued to decline

in the first half of the year, the real estate market was still in full swing, but it suddenly entered “quick freezing” with the decline of temperature. What happened to the property market in a few months? Will it fall again in the future

overall decline! The new house price index fell for the first time in 6 years

“naturally, the most noteworthy thing is that the month on month increase of the new house price index is negative for the first time. Statistics show that this is also the first decline since May 2015, in other words, it is the first decline in 77 months.” Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said

House prices have really fallen! New houses fell for the first time in six years. Can you buy a house now?

sales price index of new commercial houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September 2021. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of statistics

from the perspective of new houses, the sales price of new commercial houses in first tier cities turned flat from a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. Among them, Beijing rose 0.2% month on month to flat; Guangzhou fell by 0.1%, the same as last month; Both Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 0.2%, down 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous month

“although Shanghai and Shenzhen have increased, they are strictly implementing price limits. The trend of house price rise is completely controllable, and the price rise will not be transmitted to the surrounding cities.” 58 Lu Qilin, research director of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said

the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in second tier cities changed from 0.2% month on month to flat, and the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in third tier cities changed from flat to 0.2% month on month

“the third and fourth tier cities deserve the most attention. The house price index data of the third and fourth tier cities fell for the first time and for the first time since March 2020. Naturally, we need to pay special attention to such risks.” Yan Yuejin stressed

House prices have really fallen! New houses fell for the first time in six years. Can you buy a house now?(1)

sales price index of second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September 2021. Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of statistics

the cooling of second-hand houses is more obvious. The sales price of second-hand houses in first tier cities decreased by 0.4% from 0.2% last month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou increased by 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.5% month on month respectively to decreased by 0.2%, 0.6% and 0.4%; Shenzhen fell by 0.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month

“this is very close to the actual feeling. The recent trend of second-hand housing transaction in some cities shows that the market itself has entered an obvious cooling cycle,” said Yan Yuejin

the sales price of second-hand houses in second tier cities decreased by 0.1% month on month, while the sales price of second-hand houses in third tier cities decreased by 0.2% month on month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month

“the trading volume of second-hand houses in first tier cities and hot second tier cities has been less than one third of that at the peak, and the decline in trading volume is accompanied by the increase in transaction difficulty.” Lu Qilin said that according to the statistics of 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, the national second-hand house transaction cycle rose significantly month on month in September, reaching a new high since May last year

House prices have really fallen! New houses fell for the first time in six years. Can you buy a house now?(2)

the tightening of credit is the biggest reason for the “quick freeze”

“in the first half of the year, credit was relatively abundant, but it was difficult to lend in the third quarter, especially in hot real estate cities, including East and South China. The phenomenon of housing loan queuing in the real estate market was serious, which seriously restricted the transaction of the real estate market.” Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the tightening of real estate credit is the biggest reason for the overall quick freezing of the market

Zhang Dawei said that housing loans (medium and long-term loans to residents) decreased by 510 billion yuan year-on-year in the third quarter. The overall tightening of housing loans, loans are generally more than three months, and some cities even need more than six months, leading to the stagnation of second-hand housing transactions in the national real estate market, and the second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing have fallen to an all-time low

“in the first three quarters of this year, the amount of individual housing loans remained stable, basically matching the amount of commercial housing sales in the same period. In a few cities, house prices rose too fast, the release of individual housing loans was constrained, and the rate of house price rise was restrained. After house prices stabilized, the relationship between housing loan supply and demand in these cities will also return to normal.” At the press conference on financial statistics for the third quarter of 2021 held by the central bank on the 15th, Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the central bank, stressed that “maintain the stable and orderly release of real estate credit and maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market”, which is considered to be a signal that the real estate credit policy has bottomed out and the market has passed

it is expected in the industry that in the later stage, banks will correct the tight real estate credit policy, accurately understand and implement the credit measures for real estate enterprises, especially for red file enterprises

House prices have really fallen! New houses fell for the first time in six years. Can you buy a house now?(3)

subsequent house prices may continue to fall

“although there have been some recent relaxation of credit and other policies, there is a time lag to really affect the market fundamentals. From the historical law of the cooling cycle, it often lasts for 8 months.” Yan Yuejin believes that at present, it can be considered that the real estate market has obviously entered a cooling cycle

“it took only three months to move from general rise to general fall.” Zhang Dawei also said that most cities across the country will enter an obvious adjustment cycle in the fourth quarter. “If there is no obvious relaxation of housing loans from October, the price war will become the main keyword of the real estate market in the fourth quarter.”

Lu Qilin also believes that the national new housing market has been in a state of simultaneous decline in volume and price, And as the new year approaches, developers will reduce prices for sale in order to achieve the annual sales target. It is expected that the new house prices in cities will continue to fall in the fourth quarter

“we should clearly recognize the contradiction of current house prices and guard against the risk of house prices changing from’overheating’ to’supercooling’.” Yan Yuejin said that we should pay close attention to all kinds of market transactions in the cooling cycle, pay attention to risk control, and prevent all kinds of prices from falling too fast or market panic

the “big rise” or “big fall” of the real estate market will also bring pressure and risks. In the face of this wave of decline in house prices, some cities began to stabilize the expectations of the real estate market and issued “price limit orders”, including more than 15 cities such as Zhangjiakou, Heze, Yueyang, Kunming, Shenyang, Jiangyin, Guilin, Zhuzhou and Tangshan

have you considered buying a house recently? (end)