2021-10-19

Zhang Yunling: why is globalization not dead and there is no “thucydide trap”?

By yqqlm yqqlm

(East West question) Zhang Yunling: why do you say that globalization does not die and there is no “thucydide trap”

China News Agency, Weihai, October 19 – question: why do you say that globalization does not die and there is no “thucydide trap”

author Wen Longjie, Yang Bing, Wang Jiaoni

f2771ae4f37448d9a334f041cb646c65 - Zhang Yunling: why is globalization not dead and there is no "thucydide trap"?

today’s world is facing a great change that has not been seen in a century. Under the change, there are both challenges and opportunities. The global epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia has added uncertainty to the world today, which is full of uncertainty. Is globalization dead? Will power transfer happen

Zhang Yunling, member of the academic department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Chair Professor of Shandong University and President of the Institute of international studies of Shandong University, recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency “dongxiwen”. Zhang Yunling once served as a member of the 10th, 11th and 12th CPPCC National Committee and a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee. Based on China and looking at the world, he gave observation and analysis

the interview is summarized as follows:

China News Agency reporter: what do you think of the “globalization is dead” put forward by some people

Zhang Yunling: globalization is a typical feature of today’s world development, and few countries stay out of it. In recent years, anti globalization and anti globalization voices, forces and actions have suddenly emerged. Some people think that globalization is dead. I believe that globalization has not died, but has entered a new period of adjustment. Why adjust? There are some problems with globalization

first, imbalance, regional imbalance and industrial structure imbalance. Interdependence, opening to the outside world, industrial chain and supply chain are conducive to division of labor and participation, economic benefits and growth. However, excessive decomposition and excessive outward migration will lead to imbalance. For example, a large number of outward migration will lead to the problem of industrial “hollowing out”, that is, when the industry is moved out, if there is no new industrial substitution, it will lead to the decline of the original industrial belt. Industrial structure adjustment and transfer are necessary, but industrial policy support is needed to promote the development of new industries and fill the “hollow”. For example, Chicago in the United States is the base of traditional industries. After industrial transfer, there is no replacement and renewal. It has become a declining “rust zone”, where the voice of anti globalization is loud

Second, the security of development. Economic theory holds that the longer the supply chain, the better, and the fine division of labor improves efficiency. However, when the epidemic comes, there is a problem of supply interruption. The automobile industry and electronic products are the first to be impacted, and the industrial chain of these industries is the most detailed. In this case, enterprises and the government began to reflect that they could not rely on the outside for everything. To ensure basic supply, there should be core guarantee. Therefore, enterprises and the government have taken a series of measures and issued corresponding policies. The United States politicized the issue of development security and began to adopt a decoupling policy for China’s supply chain participation and high-tech participation, resulting in the politicization and generalization of development security. This has also become the basis for anti globalization. For all countries, governments, enterprises and individuals must pay attention to it, but going to extremes is also harmful

Third, the “polarization” of wealth. In the environment of open competition, the big gains power and the strong wins. Therefore, wealth is concentrated on the big and the strong. The more globalization develops, the more serious the polarization of wealth accumulation. Therefore, there are doubts and objections to globalization. In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis occurred in the United States, and there was an anti Wall Street movement. Wall Street represents the beneficiaries of globalization. In Europe and other countries, anti globalization forces have also increased sharply

under the above background, globalization has entered a period of adjustment, but openness, division of labor and supply chain will not end. New technology will also promote the development of new globalization

Zhang Yunling: why is globalization not dead and there is no “thucydide trap”?

China News Agency reporter: what are the aspects of globalization adjustment

Zhang Yunling: at the policy level, the government will pay more attention to the security and supply guarantee ability of domestic basic necessities, reduce the external dependence on important necessities, increase the support for industrial return, take measures to limit the outflow of core industries, such as core science and technology, key industries of the national economy and the people’s livelihood, and may even strengthen the restriction at the level of laws and regulations. Many countries have begun to formulate stricter laws and regulations on the examination and approval of foreign investment, restrict foreign investment from entering the core technology field, and strictly prevent foreign investment from buying domestic enterprises at low prices in times of economic difficulties. So it seems that “national conservatism” with the concept of economic security, social security and political security will have a greater impact. Nevertheless, no country claims to close the door to the outside world, and the United States is no exception. The U.S. government considers more politics and limits the competitiveness of its competitors. After all, the United States can maximize its interests only by relying on the world market

at the level of business strategy, enterprises will pay more attention to the security of supply chain. Therefore, it may shorten the supply chain links and strive to master the core links. In order to reduce the operation cost, intelligent technologies such as robots will be used on a large scale. However, enterprises, especially large enterprises, pay more attention to the opportunities in the international market, so they will not retreat to China. On the contrary, they will use their new technologies to build a large network based on the world market and bring more enterprises into the Internet of things

at the social level, citizens have increased pressure on the government to limit the inflow of foreign capital and population, ensure employment opportunities and improve social security. However, more people rely on a more open social, economic and political environment to obtain greater and better employment and development space. Therefore, although the original liberalism will lose power, the relationship between globalization and public interests is still very close, and it is difficult for extreme xenophobic forces to win the support of the majority of the public

Zhang Yunling: why is globalization not dead and there is no “thucydide trap”?(1)

Photo by Yang Bing, reporter of China News Agency

reporter of China News Agency: what will be the trend of globalization in the future

Zhang Yunling: from the perspective of future trend, globalization theory and public opinion turn to “managed globalization” or “limited globalization”. Nevertheless, as an important part of the collective operation of the global economy and society, globalization cannot be simply abandoned. As a development process, globalization is adjustable, controllable and variable, but irreversible. It is impossible for countries, enterprises and social groups to retreat into a closed so-called “tribal society”. For example, the government can support the return of enterprises, but it is impossible to force enterprises to return. In reality, a large number of enterprises cannot go back, especially those relying on local markets and factor resources</ P>

novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic will be over. Consideration, discussion, debate and adjustment of post epidemic policy, business strategy and civic awareness will continue and will last for a long time. This is called the reflection and transformation of “post liberalism”. However, novel coronavirus pneumonia is prevalent in the world, and the sad, pessimistic and extreme emotions tend to prevail. But after the outbreak, the balance, rationality and wisdom will gradually return to the mainstream. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a common disease. From past historical experience, every disaster will provide lessons for mankind, make human beings more rational and intelligent, promote progress, not retreat, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic is no exception. p>

in terms of the development of globalization, a new wave has emerged, which can be called network and digital globalization, that is, taking the development of information, intelligence and digital technology as the driving force, building the Internet of things and integrating various economic and social activities into the network. In fact, globalization is not only in the economic field, but also in the linkage of ecology, environment and climate change. No country can stay out of it, and politics and international relations are becoming more and more global

from the perspective of the general trend, the new globalization generally has three prominent characteristics: first, it embeds artificial intelligence, big data and big network technology, constructs the spatial Internet of things, breaks the traditional national boundary restrictions, forms spatial links, and integrates multiple elements under the big network framework. Therefore, it goes beyond the existing supply chain model, small and medium-sized companies Individuals are integrated into the space network system

Second, market opening and balanced development should be better combined to change the “only opening” mode under the guidance of liberalism. Developed countries pay more attention to international wealth accumulation and domestic socio-economic balance under globalization, and countries pay more attention to the construction of national overall security system, that is, towards a more balanced globalization

Third, the existing international institutions, cooperation mechanisms and platforms will be adjusted according to the needs of actual development, especially to meet the needs of the development of new globalization and provide support and convenience for the development of new globalization

Zhang Yunling: why is globalization not dead and there is no “thucydide trap”?(2)

intelligent production line display at China Construction Expo. Photographed by Cheng Jingwei

China News Agency reporter: how does China respond to the future trend of globalization

Zhang Yunling: China is the beneficiary of globalization. Reform and opening up has opened the door for China to participate in globalization and achieved rapid economic development. Therefore, China is also an active promoter and defender of globalization

with the rise of protectionism, populism and political interventionism, China must adhere to reform and opening up. Since industrialization, China has been at the forefront of the world in some aspects for the first time. Whether in terms of its own development needs or promoting the world economy, China can now play an increasingly important role in promoting the opening of the world market and maintaining the general trend of globalization

China News Agency reporter: what do you think of the so-called “power transfer”

Zhang Yunling: in terms of the general trend of world development, power changes are inevitable. Historically, power was transferred from one big country to another, that is, substitution. But today’s power transfer is different from the past, that is, the typical feature of power transfer is not power substitution, but power decomposition and dispersion

today’s talk about power transfer mainly involves the United States, which is the only superpower and hegemonic country in the world and has domination and control influence over the world. But will America’s power shift to another country? I don’t think so. The decomposition and dispersion of “multidirectionality” is an important feature of power transfer in the new era. With the development of diversification, no country can control the future alone. The United Nations and other international and regional organizations, covering various fields, will play an important role in managing the world. With the increasing complexity of global affairs, the role of non-state actors such as enterprises, individuals and non-governmental organizations is becoming more and more important. In some areas, national forces cannot dominate and will rely on multinational corporations

if we look at power transfer from a new perspective, there will be no “Thucydides trap”. It is necessary to establish a new discourse system in theory and public opinion. In terms of international changes, we cannot focus all the spearheads on China US relations. During the cold war, the confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States did