2021-12-31

Annual outlook: danger and opportunity, prosperity and examination. Where will the world situation go in 2022?

By yqqlm yqqlm

1 1 (Kong Qingling, sweet, Zhang Aolin, Guan Na, Meng Xiangjun) in 2022, mankind will continue to face a hundred years of great changes and the double test of COVID-19. From regional hot spots to economic development, from climate change to emerging technology, under the multiple changes caused by various challenges, where will the international situation go? p>

Annual outlook: danger and opportunity, prosperity and examination. Where will the world situation go in 2022?

on September 18, 2021 local time, hundreds of thousands of white flags were planted on the national square in Washington, D.C., to mourn the dead of the new crown</ P>

[epidemic spread – prevention and control]

2021, COVID-19 took 3 million 500 thousand lives, and the “mileage tragedy” has been refreshed again and again. Today, as we enter the new year, the prevention and control of the epidemic is still a “big test” in front of all mankind

at present, with the spread of variant strains such as delta and Omicron, the epidemic situation in European and American countries is rekindled. Among them, the number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States in a single day is even as high as 700000. At the same time, anti science rhetoric is emerging one after another. The accumulation of vaccines in rich western countries exacerbates inequality in distribution. Various experiences and lessons have repeatedly reminded that in the face of this once-in-a-century major global public health crisis, we can only get into a dead end by ignoring science and fighting alone

who director general Tan Desai pointed out that countries need to establish local production supply chains as soon as possible. It is a global priority for all countries to achieve 40% vaccination coverage as soon as possible and 70% by mid-2022

however, Tan Desai is optimistic that the most critical stage of the epidemic will be ended in 2022. Adhering to scientific epidemic prevention and showing unity are the key

Annual outlook: danger and opportunity, prosperity and examination. Where will the world situation go in 2022?(1)

on October 26, 2021, German President Steinmeier officially handed over the notice of the end of his term of office to then Chancellor Angela Merkel

[political change – attack and Defense]

last year, Biden took office and vowed to “rebuild” the United States, Germany bid farewell to the era of Merkel, and Japan ushered in its 101st prime minister. The faces of the political arena have changed, and the challenges in the future will be more severe

this year, the prospect of the Democratic Party in the US mid-term election is worrying. Biden’s support rate continues to decline, contradictions within the Democratic Party are becoming increasingly fierce, the epidemic situation and inflation situation are severe, coupled with the setback of the weather vane Virginia election, the Democratic Party may not escape the strange circle of “losing” in the mid-term election. James Thurber, a professor of government at American University, believes that “2022 will be an ugly year full of confrontation, partisan differences and deadlock.”

multinational elections add variables. The upcoming South Korean general election in March is “out of focus” ahead of schedule. The two candidates are deeply involved in scandals, and it is difficult to predict whether they will win or lose in the future. Experts believe that young voters in South Korea have disillusioned with political parties and can only “take the lesser of the two evils”. The war drum has been sounded in the French general election in April, the expansion of the territory of the far right has sprung up, and Le Pen is expected to become a “female president”. Can macron succeed? Looking back at Germany, how will the new “traffic light” government reshape the relationship between the “post Merkel era” and Europe and the world? Everything remains to be seen

Annual outlook: danger and opportunity, prosperity and examination. Where will the world situation go in 2022?(2)

[regional hot spots – dangers and opportunities]

the crisis in Ukraine is “hot”, and the clouds of war are thick. Whether the relationship between Russia, the United States and the west can remove the label of “cold war 2.0” is undoubtedly one of the biggest hot spots at the beginning of the year. Although the talks will be held, the prospect of the negotiations is not very optimistic in view of the fierce confrontation between Russia and the United States on the eastward expansion of NATO over the years. Central and Eastern Europe may not escape the fate of local conflicts

in the Indo Pacific region, the situation is more complex and sensitive. With the pressure of the U.S. mid-term elections, the Biden government will continue to offer the routine of “suppression + solicitation” in 2022, strengthen the Asia Pacific Alliance System and step up the containment of China. However, the U.S. – Australian submarine contract crisis highlights “U.S. priority”, which reduces the trust of allies in the United States; Southeast Asian countries are also reluctant to choose sides. It is hard to say how destructive the “arrow” shot by the United States at India and the Pacific is

turning to the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear issue has been on the negotiating table for nearly a year, but the United States and Iran are still divided on whether to lift sanctions against Iraq. The hasty withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan left a “security vacuum” and buried hidden dangers for the rebound of terrorism. The Palestinian Israeli “powder keg” may detonate at any time, and the long and tortuous crises in Syria and Yemen are major tests of how the Middle East forces will differentiate and evolve this year and whether the US strategic contraction can be achieved

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COVID-19, New York stock exchange. P>

[economic development – rise and fall]

recovery, what will COVID-19 continue to “devastate” the global economy? Goldman Sachs gave an optimistic expectation: in 2022, global GDP may grow by 4.5%; The center for economic and business research, a British think tank, recently predicted that the world economy will exceed US $100 trillion for the first time in the new year

overall, the analysis shows that the global economy will recover from the epidemic and gradually transition to a more normal expansion. However, in the final analysis, whether the recovery can be achieved depends on the epidemic trend. Recently, with the rapid spread of Omicron strain, the negative impact of the epidemic on the US and European economies has also continued to ferment. Gopinat, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that it is estimated that the global GDP will lose $5.3 trillion in the next five years

in addition, multi-level challenges such as tight supply chain and inflation also make the economic outlook in 2022 full of uncertainty

Annual outlook: danger and opportunity, prosperity and examination. Where will the world situation go in 2022?(3)

[ecological environment – “clean” and “pollution”]

however, like an oasis in the desert, the green economy is becoming a new engine leading the global recovery. Kunming, China, made new commitments at the United Nations Conference on biodiversity; In Glasgow, UK, the climate change conference leads a new direction. The concepts of low carbon, emission reduction and new energy are becoming the key words of multinational economic policies

how important is an environment-friendly economy? Bai Yating, the representative of the United Nations Development Programme in China, said in a sentence after the conclusion of the Kunming declaration: “let alone prosperity, if mankind wants to survive, it must defend nature.”

some countries are trying to defend, while others are wantonly destroying. In April 2021, despite the strong opposition of the international community and local people, Japan announced its plan to discharge one million tons of nuclear sewage from the Fukushima nuclear power plant and started the sewage audit. Once the sewage discharge is officially started in the spring of 2023 as planned, every corner of the global ocean will be polluted within ten years. In 2022, the whole world is watching whether Japan will rein in or go its own way

Annual outlook: danger and opportunity, prosperity and examination. Where will the world situation go in 2022?(4)

on July 8, 2021, the 2021 world Artificial Intelligence Conference opened at the Shanghai World Expo Center

[future prospects — prosperity and examination]

although the epidemic cloud has not dispersed, human scientific and technological innovation and yearning for the vast universe have never stopped. Looking up at the starry sky, more and more human marks are left there. In 2022, the Chinese space station will be completed in orbit; Several technology giants compete for private space travel services; As the first step for the United States to “return to the moon”, the Artemis 1 mission will also be launched

looking at the earth closely, information and digital technology are reshaping people’s way of life and work. The American Society of electrical and Electronics Engineers reported that artificial intelligence, cloud computing and 5g technology will become one of the most important technologies affecting 2022 and beyond

in the era of rapid development of science and technology, while the world enjoys convenience, it also faces various tests. The United States is engaged in “digital hegemony” and solicits allies to develop “small circles”; New things such as the yuan universe not only enrich people’s imagination, but also face economic and ethical risks. In a world where virtual reality is more closely combined, how to find a balance point is a challenge given to mankind by the times. (end)