2022-04-30

22 experts super full interpretation! Politburo meeting releases nine signals

By yqqlm yqqlm

ten thousand and eighty-six

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 29 analyzed and studied the current economic situation and made plans for the next economic work.

What do you think of the current economy? The meeting pointed out that the COVID-19 andUkrainian crisisThis has led to an increase in risks and challenges, an increase in the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China’s economic development environment, and new challenges in stabilizing growth, employment and prices.

What about the next economic step? The meeting proposed to strengthen macro policy adjustment, grasp the planning of incremental policy tools, fully expand domestic demand, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of platform economy

What are the signals of this important meeting that has attracted wide market attention? 《Economic Information Daily》The reporter interviewed more than 20 industry experts and interpreted the nine highlights one by one.

Grasp the planning of incremental policy tools

In terms of situation judgment, the meeting made it clear that”risks and challenges are increasing”,”the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China’s economic development environment are increasing” and”new challenges are faced in stabilizing growth, employment and prices”.

In terms of policy deployment, the meeting called for”strengthening macro policy adjustment” and making it clear that”strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year and keep the economy running within a reasonable range”. Specifically, it includes two aspects:first, we should speed up the implementation of the determined policies, implement the policies of tax rebate, tax reduction and fee reduction, and make good use of all kinds of policiesMonetary policy tools;二是提出“要Grasp the planning of incremental policy tools,加大相机调控力度,把握好目标导向下政策的提前量和冗余度。”

Researcher, Department of macroeconomic research, development research center of the State CouncilZhang Liqun

The Politburo meeting stressed that the epidemic should be prevented, the economy should be stable and development should be safe. This is the overall deployment for comprehensively addressing risks and challenges, and it is a fundamental task. Under the complex background of mutual restriction of various conditions, this task can be realized through systematic and fine docking. The expected goal and determination of the CPC Central Committee in stabilizing growth remain unchanged, but the strength of relevant policies should be significantly increased, and enough room for maneuver should be reserved.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and chairman of China chief economist Forum:

Since this year, China’s economic operation has faced many practical difficulties. The economic growth rate in the first quarter was 4.8%. The outside world is very concerned about whether it can achieve the annual economic growth target. The meeting released a clear signal that we should strengthen our confidence, meet difficulties and strive to achieve the expected goals, which is conducive to the improvement of market expectations. We believe that more effective measures will be introduced in the future.

“Grasp the planning of incremental policy tools”,意味着除了政府工作报告等定下来的今年的政策措施外,还将有更多调控政策出台,可能包括货币财政、房地产、promote消费以及地方保经济运行的政策等。“把握好目标导向下政策的提前量和冗余度”,“提前量”强调了政策要考虑到经济发展的趋势,提前谋划,及早产生调控作用。“冗余度”则强调政策出台要适当照顾到方方面面,考虑到相互影响和作用,使得政策效益最大化。

Postal savings bankResearcher Lou Feipeng:

In terms of specific incremental policy tools, it is expected to be mainly structural policy tools, focusing on supporting policies for some industries, and taking forward-looking countermeasures according to changes in the situation by reserving sufficient policy tools.

Luo Zhiheng, President of YueKai Securities Research Institute:

In terms of incremental policy, we should give greater play to the role of fiscal policy. We can consider issuing additional special treasury bonds for two special purposes:one is to vigorously support infrastructure investment, and the other is to distribute cash to small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and low-income people.

Fully expand domestic demand

会议提出,要Fully expand domestic demand,发挥有效投资的关键作用,强化土地、用能、环评等保障,全面加强基础设施建设。要发挥消费对经济循环的牵引带动作用。

疫情多点频发给消费带来冲击,3月份社会消费品零售总额同比下降3.5%,但财政政策支持下基建投资增速出现回升。这一背景下,“Fully expand domestic demand”的提法引人注目。

Institute of market economy, development research center of the State CouncilResearcher Chen Lifen:

“We should give full play to the traction and driving role of consumption on the economic cycle” is an accurate pulse of the current economic situation. When the downward pressure on the economy increases, we should highlight the basic role of consumption in economic growth and give full play to the key role of investment.

China Europe International Business SchoolProfessor Sheng Songcheng:

Infrastructure investment has become an important starting point for China’s steady growth in 2022. It will take time for consumption to recover, and infrastructure investment is highly controllable, which can promote economic stabilization and improve market expectations in the short term. Infrastructure investment should match the general direction of China’s economic transformation and development. The combination of new infrastructure and traditional infrastructure can stabilize the economic fundamentals.

Guan Lixin, deputy director of the Institute of circulation and consumption, Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce:

The follow-up consumption promotion policies should combine the long-term and short-term, take into account the objectives and problem orientation, promote the innovation and quality improvement of consumption and the construction of supporting system on the basis of the introduction and implementation of measures to respond to the epidemic and promote consumption recovery, strengthen guarantee while deepening reform, and implement comprehensive measures to release consumption potential.

Stabilize market players

会议提出,要Stabilize market players,对受疫情严重冲击的行业、中小微企业和个体工商户实施一揽子纾困帮扶政策。

Under the epidemic, market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, are facing increased pressure. Since the beginning of this year, the central and local governments have made a combination of efforts to optimize the business environment, reduce taxes and fees, and provide financial support to help market players reduce their burdens and costs. However, in the face of the complex internal and external environment, the rescue of market players still needs to be strengthened.

Liu Xiangdong, Vice Minister of Economic Research Department of China Center for international economic exchanges:

The impact of the epidemic has a great impact on small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. It is necessary to give them a package of enterprise relief policies in time to solve the business pressure caused by the risk of force majeure. Simple tax reduction and fee reduction measures can not completely solve the difficulties faced by enterprises, and more policies and measures are needed to boost confidence.

Postal savings bankResearcher Lou Feipeng:

Stabilize market players要提振市场主体信心,解决市场主体面临的困难,不仅是资金帮扶,还要从用工、原材料采购等方面采取措施。

Promote smooth logistics and ensure stable supply and price

The meeting proposed that we should do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of energy and resources, and pay close attention to the preparation of spring ploughing. We should effectively ensure and improve people’s livelihood, stabilize and expand employment, organize the supply of important people’s livelihood commodities, ensure the operation of urban core functions, stably control the situation of safe production, and maintain the overall stability of society. We should stick to a game of chess throughout the country, ensure smooth transportation and logistics, and ensure the normal operation of key industrial chains, supply chains, anti epidemic and supply guarantee enterprises and key infrastructure.

China Energy Economy Research Center, Xiamen UniversityprofessorSun Chuanwang

We should improve the smoothness of the whole chain of”production, supply, transmission and marketing” of energy, especially release the advantageous capacity of upstream production and supply nodes, strengthen the security and stability of supply, and strengthen regional regulation capacity; We should optimize the construction of energy market mechanism, strengthen the supervision of medium and long-term contract performance, increase the construction of energy reserve facilities, and deal with illegal acts disturbing market prices, so as to ensure that energy prices are stable within a reasonable range.

Everbright Securities Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macroeconomist:

Ensuring the supply of important commodities for people’s livelihood and the operation of urban core functions, ensuring smooth transportation and logistics and the stability of supply chains of key industries are not only a boost at home and abroadEnterprise investmentExpectation and people’s satisfaction are also the key to ensure the smooth operation of China’s economy and society.

Yao Kai, director of the Research Center for global science and innovation talent development of Fudan University:

Strive to ensure and improve people’s livelihood, ensure the supply of important materials for people’s livelihood, help enterprises rescue, encourage enterprises to absorb more labor, ensure residents’ employment, minimize the impact of the epidemic, maintain the core functions of the city and ensure social stability.

Lu Chengyun, deputy director of transportation service and Logistics Research Office of Comprehensive Transportation Research Institute of macro institute of development and Reform Commission:

We must effectively improve the epidemic prevention level of transportation and logistics links, strive to explore ways to improve the combination of emergency and emergency, optimize logistics organization, ensure the accessibility and timeliness of important materials, and ensure the high efficiency and low cost of transportation and logistics links.

Promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market

The meeting proposed that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, and optimize housingSupervision of commercial housing pre-sale fundsTo promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

Many insiders believe that the meeting marks the unification of top-down real estate policy objectives and releases a clearer and more positive policy signal to the industry.

China Europe International Business SchoolProfessor Sheng Songcheng:

The demand side supports rigid and improved housing demand, and the supply side optimizes the supervision of pre-sale funds, which will alleviate the housing pricescash flowCrisis and effectively reduce the occurrence of systemic risks. It is suggested to reduce the freezing proportion of pre-sale funds and expand the convenience of fund allocation in the same administrative region, so as to minimize the possibility of risk outbreak in the same administrative region.

Policy research center of the Ministry of housing and urban rural developmentFormer director, director of Urban Renewal Research Center, National Development Institute, Renmin University of ChinaQin Hong

All localities should carry out targeted policy adjustment and Optimization in combination with meeting the real housing needs and people’s livelihood security needs. The new deal focuses on stabilizing confidence and expectations, taking into account the length and avoiding simplicity and rudeness. To effectively control risks, we should adhere to the combination of dredging and blocking. In terms of pre-sale funds, we should also adhere to the necessary safety bottom line, manage scientifically, and do not indulge, excessive or overweight.

Keep the capital market running smoothly

会议指出,要及时回应市场关切,稳步推进股票发行注册制改革,积极引入长期投资者,Keep the capital market running smoothly。

Recently, affected by the expectations and emotions of investors, there have been some fluctuations in the financial market. At the same time, policies have been coordinated, and relevant departments have frequently released positive signals to stabilize the market and boost investor confidence.

National finance and development laboratoryDistinguished researcher Ren Tao:

This meeting fully released the signal of stabilizing the capital market. Recently, there has been overshoot in China’s stock market, but it should be recognized that this is mainly affected by factors such as weak investor expectations and low mood. It is a short-term response after the joint action of a variety of complex factors, which is divorced from economic fundamentals to a certain extent. The follow-up policy level will be committed to improving the quality of listed companies, promoting regulatory transformation, and guiding all kinds of institutional investors to improve their professional ability and standardized operation ability through the continuous introduction of long-term funds, Timely respond to various concerns affecting the smooth operation of the capital market, and actively introduce various policies conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the capital market.

promotePlatform economysound development

会议强调,要promote进Platform economysound development ,完成Platform economy专项整改,实施常态化监管,出台支持Platform economy规范sound development 的具体措施。

Liu Jinrui, researcher, Institute of rule of law, China Law Society:

此次政治局会议延续了此前推动Platform economy规范sound development 的政策基调。近年来,Platform economy在赋能实体经济转型、带动经济增长等方面成效显著,但也出现了一些影响市场公平竞争、侵害消费者权益的乱象。在总结专项整改经验基础上,尽快形成规范、透明、可预期的制度和监管体系,才能为Platform economy健康持续发展提供有力保障。相信随着常态化、制度化监管措施的不断出台,Platform economy会迎来新的发展机遇期。

国家工业信息安全发展研究中心信息政策所副所长高晓雨:

支持Platform economy规范sound development ,要坚持在发展中规范、在规范中发展。一方面,建立健全Platform economy治理体系。加快健全Platform economy法律法规,及时弥补规则空白和漏洞,加强数据产权制度建设,强化平台企业数据安全责任。另一方面,从构筑国家竞争新优势的战略高度出发,把握Platform economy发展规律,加强开放合作,构建有活力、有创新力的制度环境。

无锡数字经济研究院执行院长吴琦:

promote进Platform economysound development ,应坚持推动创新发展和强化监管规范并重。一方面,建立健全多方协同的Platform economy治理体系,通过立法规制引导平台强化自身责任。另一方面,引导和支持平台加强科技创新,推动平台与经济社会融合发展。

建设强大有韧性国民经济循环体系

国民经济循环在本次政治局会议中被突出强调。会议提出,建设强大而有韧性的国民经济循环体系。还提出“要发挥消费对经济循环的牵引带动作用”。

国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究室副主任杨光普:

需要深化供给侧结构性改革,着力打通经济运行中关键环节的堵点,加快清除妨碍全国统一大市场建设的障碍,持续疏通政策传导机制,畅通国民经济循环,提高经济运行效率。要坚持用改革的办法解决发展中的问题,防范化解重点领域风险,提升经济运行的韧性与抗风险能力。

北京交通大学副professor、中国高端制造业研究中心执行主任朱明皓:

立足于国内超大规模市场优势和完整产业链优势,国民经济循环体系的韧性不断增强。畅通经济循环的前提是保障产业链供应链安全稳定,下一步要加快实现高水平科技自立自强,提高科技对高技术产业的支撑能力,优化创新、人才、资金等要素的供给,提升关键核心技术产品的制造能力,不断提升经济发展韧性。

稳住外贸外资基本盘

会议提出,要坚持扩大高水平对外开放,积极回应外资企业来华营商便利等诉求,稳住外贸外资基本盘。

商务部研究院研究员聂平香:

当前国内发展面临诸多风险挑战,叠加疫情后我国外贸外资基数较高等因素,未来我国实现稳外贸稳外资的压力进一步凸显。但稳住外贸外资基本盘的基础仍在,随着助企纾困举措以及扩大开放政策持续加力,外贸外资稳量提质仍是大势所趋。

中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所研究员高凌云:

3月外贸外资增速已经出现下滑。近期国内疫情影响预计在4月份数据中将有更明显体现,所以稳住外贸外资基本盘的压力和重要性进一步凸显。不过,在政策全面持续加力下,预计二季度后半程反弹可期。

目前情况下,建议在企业普遍关注的物流、人流畅通上进一步加大政策落地的速度和力度,保障包括外贸外资企业在内的市场主体尽快恢复正常生产和运营,进一步稳定外贸外资企业的预期,增强发展信心。

商务部研究院国际市场研究所所长许英明:

建议加强与外资主体的政策沟通,支持外贸主体经营,稳住其对营商环境优化和经济尽快恢复的信心;尽快恢复产业链供应链,畅通国内大循环,增强其对持续发展经济和扩大开放的预期。

来源|微信公众号“Economic Information Daily”