2022-06-25

Research estimates that the covid-19 vaccine saved nearly 20million lives last year

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Research estimates that the covid-19 vaccine saved nearly 20million lives last year

Gregory barnsle, co-author of the new study, explained: “Quantifying the global impact of vaccination is challenging because countries have different access to vaccines, our understanding of which covid-19 variants are already spreading is also different, and gene sequence data in many countries are very limited. It is also impossible to directly measure how many people will die if they do not receive vaccines. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for evaluating alternatives, which we cannot directly observe in real life These programs. ”

The computer model used in the study first tracked the excessive death reports in 185 countries and regions. The covid-19 transmission in each country is then considered together with the vaccination rates in individual countries. From this, the model can estimate how many deaths will be avoided in each country introducing the vaccine in 2021.

Research estimates that the covid-19 vaccine saved nearly 20million lives last year(1)

Overall, the model estimates that without the development and distribution of vaccines, the global death toll of covid-19 will be 31.4 million in 2021. According to the model, the actual number of deaths in 2021, including excess deaths not formally attributed to covid-19, is estimated to be 11.6 million, which is roughly between the official number of deaths and the latest estimate of 20million. This means that the model estimates that the vaccine may have saved 19.8 million lives last year.

Nearly 80% of the lives saved by the vaccine are due to the direct impact of the vaccine on reducing a person’s likelihood of serious illness and hospitalization. Another 4million deaths avoided in the model were due to a reduction in vaccine related transmission.

Research estimates that the covid-19 vaccine saved nearly 20million lives last year(2)

Oliver Watson, the lead author of the study, particularly criticized the failure of the covax initiative, which tries to ensure that low-income countries have at least 40% of the vaccinations by the end of 2021. The study shows that if it reaches the target and the vaccine is more equitably distributed in countries with less supply, nearly 600000 covid-19 deaths in 2021 can be avoided.

“This initiative was established because it was clear from an early stage that global vaccine equity would be the only way out of a pandemic,” Watson said. “Our findings suggest that millions of lives may have been saved by providing vaccines to people everywhere, regardless of their wealth. However, more could have been done. If the goals set by who were met, we estimate that about one fifth of the lives lost in low-income countries as a result of covid-19 could be prevented.”

Research estimates that the covid-19 vaccine saved nearly 20million lives last year(3)

Ultimately, these estimates are proof that the covid-19 vaccine is incredibly life-saving. The pace of development of these vaccines is unprecedented in scientific research, and the rapid distribution in 2021 will save tens of millions of lives.

However, the study does point out areas that need to be improved in the future, citing the millions of lives lost last year due to the problems of vaccine distribution infrastructure and the fairness of rich countries’ hoarding of large doses.

The conclusion of the new study is: “in the future, we need to share vaccine intellectual property more quickly, and carry out more open technology and knowledge transfer around vaccine production and distribution. The vaccine distribution and delivery infrastructure also needs to expand its scale globally and combat misinformation to increase vaccine demand.”

The new study was published in the Lancet Infectious diseases.